The Application Of Optimal Operation Of Mixed Storage Power Station And The Method Of Risk Analysis

It is very important to improve the power source structure, make full use of renewable energy and enhance the operation and management level of pumped-storage power stations for constructing a resource-saving and environment-friendly society and sustainable development of power industry. The operation and management of mixed storage power station are further discussed by adopting different ways such as the optimal scheduling algorithm, risk analysis and evaluation, long-term optimal scheduling, real-time scheduling, etc. in this paper. The conclusions are as follows:(1) In order to solve multi-stage, non-linear and other difficult problems of optimal operation of mixed storage power station, a novel and efficiency algorithm, Advanced Particle Swarm Optimization (APSO) is presented in the thesis. The mechanism of random dynamically changing inertia weight and the generation mechanism of chaotic variables are introduced to increase the diversity of particles which can avoid the local optimization and premature of the PSO algorithm.(2) Based on events and their goals, in another way, the way space and target space can be changed when events have happened, Probability Optimization Method for the Risk Calculating (POMR) which discusses the antagonistic relationship between risks and benefits is proposed after analyzing the actual operation and management of reservoirs. And this antagonistic relationship is very important when dispatchers make the decision.(3) The long-term optimal scheduling model of mixed storage power station is constructed to solve the complex problems, for instance, the Multi-constrained, multi-stage and non-linear in the joint reservoir operation and energy maximization.(4) The real-time scheduling model of storage power station based on the scheduling function is founded. Time, space and energy factor are variables to be elected in this scheduling function which is design by using regression theory. Taking all the aspects into account, this paper compares the simulation results calculated by the scheduling function with the optimal scheduling results. The results show that the model based on the scheduling function can receive better plan and provide a new approach for the operation of mixed storage power station.(5) In the base of risk evaluation index system for generation scheduling, expectations model for risk analysis of mixed storage power station is established by using the POMR methods and uncertainty theory, and simple and practical solution method is presented. The applications show that the model can pursue the maximal efficiency of power plant in a certain risk circumstances, and establish the relationship between target space and factor space through sensitivity analysis also can improve the operation by controlling the risk factors. So this model is significant for making the operation scheduling.(6) Risk analysis model of cofferdam based on the POMR method which is adopted to solve the risk factors is proposed in this paper. It has been applied to calculate the risk in the first cofferdam of Xiangjiaba Hydrometric. After analysis the flood features and the backwater of hengjiang, three-layer BP neural network is used predict the water level of Xiangjiaba Hydrometric. Then the influence of the hengjiang inflow to the first cofferdam of Xiangjiaba also discussed. The risk model of the first cofferdam of Xiangjiaba is also established. This provids the basis for the flood season cofferdam security for managers decision-making.