Risk Research And Game Analysis Of Second-hand Vehicle Trade

With the continuous economic mechanism reform deepened and the development of market economy, the number of Motor Vehicles has increased rapidly, which is pushed forward by the implementation of automobile Industry policies and the deepening of automobile distribution system. The growth of new vehicle sale certainly will lead to prosperous second-hand vehicle market. However, China's second-hand vehicle market is till in the initial stage, lacking related standards, normative trade modal and evaluation system. Besides, the information network system and service concept of national second-hand vehicle trade market also need further improvement. Under this background, the information of national second-hand vehicle trade market is seriously asymmetrical, which not only dampens the enthusiasm of second-hand vehicle consumers but also impacts the sustainable, steady and rapid development of national second-hand vehicle trade market. Therefore, it is significant to solve the problems of asymmetrical information in national second-vehicle trade market from the perspective of ensuring the healthy development of China's automobile Industry as well as from the perspective of satisfying the demand of national second-vehicle trade market.On the basis of analyzing the present situation of related problems, this paper first reviews the basic theory applied in second-hand vehicle trade risk research, including asymmetrical information theory and adverse choice, game theory and the research of information economy. This part puts emphasis on the "Lemons market theory", which explains information economy problems by classic second-hand vehicle modal. Based on the theoretical analysis above, this paper mainly investigates the following issues:First, it studies the risk of second-hand vehicle trade. After analyzing the relationship between asymmetrical information and second-hand vehicle trade behavior, it discusses the importance of researching the risk of second-hand vehicle trade subject. Then it builds the risk evaluation indicator system of second-hand vehicle trade behavior, and then evaluates the system by using Fuzzy Evaluation Method and Monte Carlo Stochastic Modeling Method and makes empirical study; meanwhile, it investigates the relationship between deciders risk attitude and risk effect balance so as to provide theoretical basis for risk decision in the situation of information asymmetry.Second, it makes game analysis on each subjects'behavior in second-hand vehicle trade from the perspective of asymmetrical information theory. It mainly examines the game behavior of buyers and sellers in negotiation and closing transactions as well as the game behavior between buyers and price evaluation agencies in second-hand vehicle trade. Then on the basis of two-two game in second-hand vehicle trade, it builds the behavior game modal among buyers, sellers and evaluation agencies, studies the game relationship among the three parties by using game mixed strategy Nash equilibrium and puts forward several measures to manage rent-seeking activities.Third, it researches the prevention of second-hand vehicle trade risk from the perspective of asymmetrical information theory. According to Principal-Agent theory, the risk prevention modal for moral risk and adverse choice is built. In moral risk prevention, it analyzes the effect of incentive mechanism and supervision mechanism on Principal-Agent relationship and builds the optimized incentive and supervision modal in the situation of asymmetrical information. In adverse choice risk prevention, it constructs signaling modal and information discrimination modal.Forth, it puts forward applying GRC risk management concept into second-hand vehicle trade risk management participated by related government sectors on the basis of analyzing the present situation of research and implementation of GRC risk management and control at home and abroad. From the perspective of GRC risk management's aim, organization, information system and method, it explores the GRC risk management of second-hand vehicle trade based on asymmetrical information and introduces the basic method of solving adverse choice and moral risk. Finally, it brings forward the solution strategy for reinforcing second-hand vehicle risk management, including strengthening system suggestion and internal compliance management, building incentive and restraint mechanism, reinforcing information and information stage construction, establishing GRC risk internal control management pre-warning mechanism and so on.This paper makes use of various methods, such as data case research, theoretical analysis, data model algorithm, quantitative research and empirical study. The innovation of it mainly displays in the following aspects:First, it introduces game theory and asymmetrical information theory into second-hand vehicle trade risk management, which widening their application area and enriching second-hand vehicle risk management theory; considering most second-hand vehicle risk management research is carried out from the perspective of objective risk, it puts forward subject behavior risk concept of second-hand vehicle trade to explore the essence of second-hand vehicle risk.Second, it makes systematical analysis of both parties'behavior game in second-hand vehicle trade, namely, the game between buyers and sellers, buyers and second-hand vehicle evaluation agencies, sellers and second-hand vehicle evaluation agencies; on this basis, it builds the behavior game model among three subjects in second-hand vehicle trade, and analyzes the game relationship among three subjects through using game mixed strategy Nash equilibrium.Third, aimed at moral risk and adverse choice, it builds the optimized incentive and supervision modal, signaling modal and information discrimination modal for each subject in second-hand vehicle trade in the situation of asymmetrical information, and brings up a set of solution to prevent and reconcile trade risks of second-hand vehicle.Finally, it applies GRC risk management concept into second-hand vehicle trade risk management and constructs GRC risk internal management system framework for second-hand vehicle trade on the basis of asymmetrical information.