Research On Region Hydropower Resources Dynamic Evaluation And Coordinated Mechanism

Along with the economy growing rapidly in china, non-renewable energy such as coal, the petroleum and the natural gas demand more greatly with the economic developing and the industrialization and the urbanization expanding gradually, then the imbalance between supply and demand of energy is also getting more and more prominent. On the one hand, it needs to be solved the prominent imbalance between supply and demand of energy due to shortage of supply. On the other hand, it must be considered environmental pollution problems induced by the energy consumption. In view of the fact that our country energy development's dual pressures, our country takes strategically measure of developing priority to the hydropower. The hydropower is a good renewable energy source, having the advantages of the supply greatly, the improving structure easily, ensuring safety, bettering atmospheric and the ecological environment. In recent years, however, the hydropower had the problem of overexploited and ignored the environment. In this paper, we do research in the substitution effect and the coordinated mechanism of hydropower based on calculation of hydropower development quantity, considering the sustainable development of hydropower in the fields of the economical, social and the environment.This paper research is made up of three steps. The first step is a foundation, which is calculation of hydropower development quantity via the FDTD method, in order to provide the theoretical basis for the hydropower development. The second level carries on the analysis the substitution effect of the hydropower development, by virtue of the pulse response function using the VAR model based on the first level foundation. The third step is the hydropower development ultimate goal, that is the sustainable development of hydropower in the fields of the economical, social and the environment. So we study coordinated mechanism of the hydropower development to achieve the final goal. Three coordinated development of the hydropower exploiter, the environment and immigrant provides the financial support for the following hydropower development, and then a logical circulation forms.Innovative contents in this study are mainly the following spots:Firstly, we calculate the hydropower development quantity via the FDTD method, after the construction of time domain and the spatial domain partial differential equation.Based on the existing literature and the massive material data and considering that many influencing factors, environment especially in the hydropower development process, we calculate the hydropower development quantity via the FDTD method which is numerical technique for solving electromagnetic problem. So the science datum has been constructed for the strategic planning of hydropower resource development, thus sustainable development rationale and analysis method of hydropower resources are enriched and developed.Secondly, we have studied the hydropower development substitution effect based on calculation of hydropower development quantity.We analyze the replacing of the hydropower consumption competition with the coal, the oil and natural gas consumption using the VAR model the pulse response impact function. And the very strong substitutability is discovered between the hydropower consumption and the coal consumption, the hydropower consumption and the natural gas consumption are of the interchangeability either, at the same time, the hydropower consumption to the coal consumption and the natural gas the negative pulling function is more obvious, that indicated that substitution effect between the hydropower and the coal is bigger than the natural gas. Then the relation of the hydropower and the petroleum consumption is mutual promotion, and substitution of hydropower to the petroleum is not obvious. According to the above substitution relations, we not only improve our country structure of energy consumption, reduce our country petroleum foreign degree of dependency, but also improve the air quality, reduce the pollutant in atmospheric. This is an inevitable choice for our country economy, social and the environment sustainable development and the energy sustainable supplies.Thirdly, hydropower development coordinated mechanism has been studied using evolution gambling model, meanwhile the hydropower exploiter, the environment and the immigrant as the main body essential factor, to achieve the goal of the hydropower development system's sustainable development.We do gambling behavior research among the hydropower exploiter, the ecological environment and the immigrant, three main body essential factors of the hydropower development coordination system's, and obtain its the best stable points: The hydropower develops and repairing ecological environment at the low cost, and the hydropower develops and movement of immigration at the low cost. Based on the gambles the point, we carry on the compensation to the ecological environment and the immigrant, and the hydropower exploiter's economic efficiency is realized. And then the sustainable development of hydropower in the fields of the economical, social and the environment has been completed, furthermore, a virtuous circle of the hydropower development coordinated mechanism has been realized.