| Pig and food are essential for Chinese residents in the long-time. Since reform and opening of the market, China's pig production has developed rapidly, while faces major problems and challenges . In recent years,pig producing has fluctuated frequently in China and that become more dramatic. This is because of the constraints on pig production appeared such as backward mode of pig production, inefficient of production, as well as feed, labor, land, capital, and environmental factors. Therefore, it is significant to insure pig sector develope steadily in a long run. This article studied the growth and fluctuation of pig production in detail. Both econometric models and corresponding theories were used to reveal reasons of growth and fluctuation of pig production, so as to provide theories and technology parameters, and put forward policy recommendations aimed at the problems.Some conclusions could be drawn are as follows:(1) The input factors of hog make contributions about 50% to its output growth. The output elasticity of feed, piglets, labor and other capital inputs are respectively 1.14, 0.129,- 0.073 and 0.033, and the scale elasticity 1.208 in 2008. That Shows pig production has been experiencing the transformation from the extensive to intensive operation in which the number of material inputs is the main source of hog production growth. Among input factors, feed did greater contribution to the output of pig than others , labor was used in excessive, and breeding infrastructure and technical services were also poor.In addition, the scale elasticity above 1 impied increasing return to scale in China.(2) The total factor productivity (TFP) in pig industry contributed 50.87% towards pig output. From 1980 to 2008, the TFP increased 64.3%, with average growth of 2.29% per year. On the other hand, the TFP changed with high volatility that means that pig production is affected by many factors such as natural disasters and animal epidemics which could cause a decline in productivity. The rate and sources of TFP growth varied with different stages of development in hog industry. As a whole , scale of TFP growth mainly came from improved efficiency and allocative efficiency. Technical advances was relatively slow, and technical efficiency made a little progress, even a regression in some times.(3) The supply response in hog sector is characterized by the long-term flexibility larger than short-term flexibility. In the short term, hog production is not sensitive to the price, because both supply elasticity of pigs and demand elasticity of feed, piglets and labor are less than 1. Relatively prices of pig and feed made greater impact on pig production . The interaction in input factors was obvious. In the long run, hog production is sensitive to the price ,the main factors affecting pig production are the hog prices, feed prices and other capital investment costs. The interaction in input factor was more obvious than in short term.(4) China's pig production has gone through five fluctuating cycles, with the average cycle of 5.5 years and the average volatility of 8.3%. The period length change between 3 and 9 years , and the volatility between 7% and 9% . The cycles length and range of the fluctuating were gradually reduced(5) In all factors affecting the fluctuations of hog output , the influence of external factors was much more than internal factors, and the influence of scale level and sow quantity more than prices, and the model with 2 year delay was best. GDP growth rate increased by 1 % will cause pork output index to rise by 0.68 of the third year. Incidence of the disease can lead to decline 2.18 in pork production index of the second year ,and implementation of the policy will lead to raise by 6.19 in pork production index. Pig price index increased by 1 will cause pork production index to rise by 0.09 of the second year. Corn price index increased by 1 will cause pork production index to rise by 0.13 of the third year . Sow qualitity index increased by 1 can lead to pork production index to rise by 0.23 of fourth year. Scale level increased by 1 can lead to pork production index to drop 0.15 of consecutive 3 years . Estimate results of four models with free, one, two, and three year delayed showed that the model with two time delayed was the best, then it could be used for forecast of pork production volatility.(6) The future development of pig industry has to depend on improving productivity, moderate scale, innovating mode of industrialization, promoting healthy culture based on the government's assistant and macro-control.The specific suggestion are as follows:1. Improve the overall productivity by scientific-technical progress;2. Actively promote the production mode and the sustained growth of production;3. Strengthen disease prevention and control to reduce production fluctuations;4.further greatly policy support and improve public services;5.Establish early warning system of the pig industry and upgrate the public service level and capacity;6. Strengthen livestock macro-control and protect the stable development of production.The innovation of this paper are as listed below: 1. This paper focused on quantitative analysis method, make depth and detailed analysis of the relevant concerns with an empirical model,which is distinction with the previous qualitative research made by Most scholars;2. This paper used the panel data of 25 provinces in 1980-2008,which made the information rich, representative and timely;3. This paper first decomposed hog industry TFP into technological progress, technical efficiency, scale efficiency and allocative efficiency by using stochastic frontier model, and got the output elasticity of various input ;4. Calculate long-term flexibility and short-term flexibility of the input demand and pig supply of by using Constrained Profit Function model,and distinguish the degree different supply response of live pigs during different times;5.Classify the main factors affecting the fluctuations detailly and add demurrage variable to quantitative analysis ,which made the analysis of the fluctuation more comprehensive and closer to reality with.
|
PDF Full Text Request