Statistical Model Of Modern Service Industry Agglomeration And Its Application

So far, a majority of studies about agglomeration is in terms of manufacturing, rather than service industry. When the "industrial economics" turns to the "services economics" all over the world, the service industry developed rapidly. The trend of agglomeration in the spatial location is strengthened. Agglomeration development exerts a greater influence on the competitiveness of services. Some scholars have begun to pay close attention to the studies about the agglomeration of modern services, but the methods measured statistically, which study the clustering phenomenon about modern services agglomeration, and the measure models about modern services agglomeration are not valued by many scholars. What's more, the literatures, which make use of measure methods to study modern services agglomeration, are relatively thin and unsystematic. The studies about demonstration of services are still unsubstantial because the outputs about services are hard to be measured and the regulations related to statistics are hysteretic. Foreign theories about collection of services are mostly built on basis of experience of developed countries and areas in west. The paper uses techniques of econometrics to study the agglomeration phenomenon of modern services. It is play an important role in theory for seeking the statistical models about explore the inherent principle about the collection of modern services and conduction mechanism.The paper use the relative theories about services economics, economic geography and spatial economics, based on the theory research of modern services agglomeration, combine the characters of modern services, using techniques of econometrics to structure the analytical system of modern services agglomeration, systematically study numerous problems about the modern services agglomeration in China, such as the clustering evolution, agglomeration features, agglomeration formation, competitiveness agglomeration and so on. The content Embodied in the following five areas:(1) On the basis of research results of modern service industries agglomeration formation mechanism, clustering evolution, clustering and competitiveness at home and abroad, combined with the characteristics of modern service industry, the paper had be concentrated on the basic theory research of the nature of competitive advantage and the formation mechanism of modern service industries agglomeration, thus establishing the modern service industry gathering statistical model theory and its applications platform. Research shows that the essence of modern service industries is concentrated in certain areas, based on precise division of labor and specialization in a specific geographic chain formed by the accumulation of their interaction. The performance of modern service industries agglomeration has competitive advantage of cost advantage, external economic advantage, innovation, brand and so on. These competitive advantages are coordinated and integrated the results of the collaborative competition mechanism, knowledge spillover mechanism, self-reinforcing mechanism, coordinate and integration mechanism.(2) In the basis of systematic criticism of several kind of industry agglomeration measurements, from two aspects which are static and dynamic, this paper build a measure model for the phenomenon of service sectors'clustering, including a indices system and a dynamic panel model as well, to carry out an empirical analysis about the spatial agglomeration characteristics and the industry mobility of China's services from year 2003 to 2007.The conclusions show, According to the measurement of indices system of services'agglomeration, the average service sectors indicates a low degree of concentration, almost all of theγcoefficients are smaller than 0.05.In the view of industry, producer services share a higher industry regional agglomeration tendency and present a more obvious enterprise agglomeration in industry trend, consumer services, especially social services which are regulated by the government, as is known to all, a monopoly market is hard to form under this circumstance, therefore, the levels of clustering in both sides are undoubtedly low. Test of significance shows that the phenomenon of China's service industry clustering is statistically significant. Moreover, the differences in degrees of various service industries'concentration are also significant. It can be concluded from the panel data model that changes in geographic concentration of service industry stems from a combination of the mean reversion and the randomness.(3)Based on the analysis of the evolution of the modern service industry agglomeration, combining Symbiotic theory and economic evolution theory, the paper has built a modern service industries agglomeration Logistic model to analyze the symbiotic relationship between modern service enterprise clustering, clustering and evolution mechanism of growth factors, thus revealing the evolution of modern service industries agglomeration basic laws. Studies show that modern service industry agglomeration is similar to the biological species, has its birth, growth, maturity and decline process. Modern service industries agglomeration growth is non-linear, its growth constrained by the largest industry gathering N value and the concentration of growth in the size of the impact of a values. The evolution of modern service industries agglomeration are formed by profit-driven and ecological balance mechanism, which is positive and negative feedback mechanism together. Empirical analysis shows that the evolution of China's modern service industry agglomeration as a whole was a S-curve. China's modern service industries agglomeration mainly has three kinds of evolution path, that is, market-oriented, market and government-driven, government-led. For the evolution problem of China's modern service industry clustering exists, it should deepen the reform of institutional mechanisms for the modern service industry; expansion industrial chain, enhance the integrate ability of the resource elements; adhere to the principle of the Government has provided, through the mechanism of competition and promote the effective clustering of modern service industry.(4)In the premise of considering the effect of space, the paper build a space panel data model to analyze the agglomeration formation mechanism of service industry, which are used for an empirical research of that of China across 28 provinces from year 1997 to2007.The conclusions show, not only modern service industry displays a strong spatial correlation, but also a strong rely-on-each-other relationship and a positive spillover effect is formed among provinces. Different factors in time, space, space-time dimensions of the role and influence are different. The technical differences play a significant role of promoting the agglomeration of service industry only in time period fixed effects, when it comes to spatial fixed effects and spatial-time fixed effects, it behaves a negative role. In the aspects of both space and time dimensions, there is a significant negative correlation between transaction costs and modern service industries agglomeration, which indicates that the decline of transaction costs in the agglomeration region is helpful to the modern service industry agglomeration. Knowledge spillover plays a strong role in promoting the development of modern service industries agglomeration. The estimated coefficients of government regulative are significantly positive, which indicates that the provincial governments' guidance and policy support has played an active role in promoting the development of modern service industries agglomeration in various regions, but in the view of spatial dimension, government intervention in industry is still need to be strengthened.(5)On the basis of the concept of the concentrated competitiveness of the modern service industry, the paper used the structural equation model to establishment the modern service industry competitiveness evaluation model on macro-level, scientific evaluate the competitiveness of modern service industry in concentration and its regional differences in china; and then, building the competitiveness of the modern service industry clustering effect model to systematic analysis the mechanism among the concentrated competitiveness of the modern service industry, services competitiveness and the development of national economy in china. The conclusions show, from the mechanism of internal, the concentrated competitiveness of modern service industries mainly reflected in the market efficiency, innovation, environment and so on. The concentrated competitiveness of modern service industries is closely linked to its modify factors. From the effect of external, the concentrated competitiveness of modern service industries have a strong positive influence on Services Competitiveness and the development of national economy. From the perspective of time series analysis, the concentrated competitiveness of the modern service industry increased slowly as a whole from 2002 to 2007, but the concentrated competitiveness of the modern service industry is declining trend in certain areas of China, as Yunnan Province, Guizhou Province,Gansu Province and so on. From the perspective of spatial analysis, the concentrated competitiveness of the modern service industry present grade distribution across 28 provinces in China. First class and second class are widespread in eastern regions of China. Third class is almostly widespread in Middle West regions of china. They are low in all factors of the concentrated competitiveness of the modern service industry, and all rank in the last. This is due to the smaller size of the market in central and western regions, a low degree of openness, shortage of innovation resources, innovation system is not perfect, spatial structure and resources need improved.