Research On The Evolution Of China's Employment Structure And Its Development Trends In Industruial Structure

Employment issues related to economic development and social harmony. Since the reform and opening up, China's employment structure has changed dramatically. As Various employment conflicts are intertwined, the issues of employment structure become more apparent. However, in previous researchworks, the evolution of China's employment structure is lack of specialized study, and the mainstream quantitative research methods on the employment structure are also weaknesses. Thus, in current circumstances, using new quantitative research methods to explore the evolution of China's employment structure and to predict its development trends is of great practical, theoretical and methodological significance.This paper traces the evolution process of employment structure from 1978 to 2007 based on the theories at home and abroad, and analyses the employment structure in several aspects such as industrial structure, urban-rural structure, ownership structure, regional structure, knowledge structure, etc. The industrial structure of employment is the most important feature of the employment structure. In addition, it analyses the impacts of the world financial crisis on China's employment structure. By summarizing the the factors which affect the evolution of China's employment structure, it points out that the evolution of industrial structure is the most important reason which cause.the evolution of employment structure in China.A major innovation in this paper is the usage of artificial neural network, with which, it establishes the evolution model, then simulates and forecasts China's employment structure.According to China's statistics from 1978 to 2007, it simulates the process of the proportion of industrial employment and output value for different levels of per capita GDP in China. It points out that with the growth of per capita GDP in China, the evolution of employment structure and the industrial structure shows a stage feature that the pace of development from quick to slow to fast.According to the statistical data of 31 provinces in China from 2000-2007, it predicts the trend of China's employment structure and analyses the trends and features of China's employment structure and industrial development,within the scope of changes of per capita GDP from 16,000 yuan to 45,000 yuan. It shows that with the increase of per capita GDP, the proportion ofemployment (output) in primary industry will gradually decrease; the proportion of employment (output) in secondary industry will increase in first, and then decrease, showing a shape of openings down parabolic; the proportion of employment (output) in tertiary industry will gradually increase. When the per capita GDP is in the level of 29,000 yuan and 26,000 yuan, the employment and output of the secondary industry respectively come to turning point. When the per capita GDP is 23,000 yuan and 31000 Yuan, the pattern of employment structure will transit from "132" to "231" and eventually developed to "321". When the per capita GDP reaches to 34,000 yuan, the pattern of industrial structure will change from "231" to "321".This article also discusses the evolution of employment structure in the world and makes comparison of world and China. It summarizes the features of the evolution of employment structure in developed countries which provide a reference to make relevent employment policies in China.In order to facilitate the future development of China's employment structure, the article presents relevant policy recommendations. It suggests that through optimization of industrial structure to improve the employment structure; adjusting the direction of investment, optimizing the investment structure; promoting consumption, expanding domestic demand.Econometric methods are commonly used in the research of employment projections. But it couldn't fully reflect the dynamical, non-linear and non-deterministical features between economic variables. Artificial neural network has higher prediction accuracy.It has many features such as fault-tolerant,fast data-processing speed, etc. which make it especially suitable for dealing with multi-factor, uncertainty, non-linear problems. This article points out that the artificial neural network has a wide application prospect in economic analysis and economic forecast. Artificial neural network also has a great value of promotion, because it will develop a wider research vision to develop the economics and put forward new research topics and research directions in the research of economics.