| Since China has executed the Policy of Reformation and Opening, Chinese economy develops very rapidly, the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization has induced agricultural production resources to pour out of agricultural sectors continuously, especially that lot of arable lands have turned into construction lands。Be faced with the tendency of the reduction of total mount of cultivated land resources, increasing grain yield per unit becomes more and more difficult, and it often happens Natural-Disaster in China, grain production's fluctuation is very great, grain continuous and steady growth's potentiality is limited, At the same time, as Chinese population is very great and continues to grow in the short term and people's consumption structure will be increased, which will induce that the sum of demand of grain increase ceaselessly, in the future, Chinese grain will be faced with the situation of in short supply, the situation of grain security is not optimistic in the future.Grain security is not only the basis of a country's economy development, but also is the basis of a country politic stability. With the close connection between domestic and foreign country, which makes China will be confronted with the double pressure of production materials insufficiency and the total demand enhancement。In current world, a country's grain mainly depends on self-support, meanwhile, it is also compensated by international grain market. Since in 1980, under the circumstances of global integration, all kinds of trade barriers and investment restriction were eliminated ceaselessly, commodity or service can be produced and traded by international division of labor. At present, most of grain shortage countries mainly depend on importing grain from international grain market and buying or renting cultivated land in abundant land resource country to ensure domestic grain security, such as Japan, Korea and Malaysia etc. International grain market will tend to trade liberalization in the future, by implementing virtual cultivated land strategy, which can be a means of ensuring our grain security。The concept of virtual cultivated land comes from virtual water, the trade which happens among countries and regions is to import or export cultivated land resource in the form of virtual cultivated land, virtual cultivated land import is the land which is converted into grain import amount and the land amount which our country go to overseas to buy or rent land, as China will be faced with double pressure of production materials insufficiency and the total demand enhancement, its main problem is:whether 1.8 billion mu cultivated "red line" can be protected or not? If the 1.8 billion mu cultivated "red line" can't be protected, how to secure our country's future grain security? therefore, basing on the angle of virtual cultivated import to discuss Chinese grain security is very important。Currently, although many scholars discuss on how to secure our country's future grain security, most of them think that we mainly depend on increasing our country's grain productivity to guarantee our grain security, and the increasing of grain productivity must base on certain cultivated land; some scholars put forward that we should take good use of international and domestic market. In the past, China constantly keep 95 percent of grain self-sufficiency, which pay out great economic and ecological cost and even hinder our country's the course of industrialization and urbanization. Importing virtual cultivated land can adjust grain sufficiency and shortage, which can guarantee a country's grain security, and by grain trade can exert our country's agriculture comparative advantage, moreover share the welfare which international division of labor brings; at the same time, a few scholars think we should implement the strategy of "going out" in order to guarantee our Chinese grain absolute security, going to the countries which have abundant cultivated land resource to plant grain, and take good use of our labor advantage, capital advantage, and agricultural technology advantage, which can mitigate the problem of decreasing cultivated land during industrialization and urbanization and meanwhile which can improve host country's agriculture technology, and gain mutual benefits. But now there are almost few empirical analysises on how to select overseas agriculture investment countries, discuss Chinese agriculture, "going out" means and strategies. Therefore, how to break through existing research ideas and methods, use quantitative models to analyze and forecast China's future grain supply and demand, during the process of industrialization and urbanization grasping the situation of China's future food security, and how to solve China's grain supply and demand gap safely and economically and adopt effective agricultural policy measures to ensure China's domestic food security under the context of globalization on, which is of great theoretical and practical significance of application。The main framework of this dissertation is as follows:This paper is composed of five major parts. The first part is the first chapter, "Introduction", The first part was about the current literature review in this dissertation and explain the dynamic significance of this research at home and abroad, structure and main contents of the ideas and methods and research innovations. Summarize and review comprehensively and systematically domestic and foreign scholars on securing China's grain safety measures and research ways。The second part is the second chapter in this dissertation. This part mainly elaborates the basic concepts and the theoretical basis of grain security, analyze the concept difference between land and cultivated land, between virtual cultivated land and virtual land, then analyze the theoretical basis of virtual land import-Ricardian theory of comparative advantage and the Heckscher-Ohlin factor endowment theory, then reach a conclusion that international trade can make factor price equalize。The third part includes from the third to fifth chapters, this part mainly elaborates Chinese grain security situation and prospect of future grain security under the background of the world food crisis, analyze Chinese cultivated land resource situation and think it difficult to keep the "read line" of 18 million mu cultivated land. Then, apply ARMA and GARCH models to predict China's future grain production and consumption,and according to three different population growth rate calculated the gap of china's grain supply and demand in 2010-2030, and so know China's grain security situation is not optimistic。Part four consists of Chapter six and Chapter seven, this part analyzes the situation of the global grain trade and the need for China's importing virtual land. According to the previous section predicts that China's grain supply and demand gap in 2030 will reach 77.4 million tons maximum, in order to ensure China's future grain security, we have to implement virtual cultivated land import strategy--directly imported grain from the international market and carry out Chinese agriculture, "going out" Strategy or named the Agricultural Foreign Investment Strategy. According to previous analysis we know that, compared to produce grain by ourselves, the Chinese grain which are imported from the international market can increase our country's welfare. But as the international grain market is limited, we can't place our grain gap on it, even if we can import the grain we need from the international market which is also at the expense of other countries'welfare. Therefore, this dissertation suppose that Chinese agriculture can be implemented "going out" strategy, going to abundant land countries to purchase or lease land for grain production in order to ensure the grain's absolute security in the future。Part five is the Chapter eight. According to the previous research results, put forward some reasonable suggestions and give a summary for full paper. Although the China's grain supply and demand gap will appear larger, with the further development of economic globalization, the global production factor mobility between countries will be strengthened. In order to satisfy our country's future grain demand, we can adopt virtual cultivated land strategy to ensure China's future grain security. Through the study of this paper, we could provide some ideas for ensuring Chinese grain security, which make our country's economy develop healthily and continuously, make our society more harmonious。As my time and ability is limited, this study will inevitably exist some imperfections, this paper is only carried out on Chinese agriculture foreign investment's rough research, the author can also do some comprehensive study based on cost-benefit approach。This paper may have the following three aspects academic innovation:(1) In theory, this paper absorbed some experts'existing research results. based virtual cultivated land import angle, use international trade and international investment theory to Study China's grain security issues;(2) In concept, this paper innovate the concept of virtual cultivated land, based on the original definition of Virtual cultivated land, we expanded the definition of Virtual cultivated land import, this paper's virtual cultivated land import not only includes directly import grain from the international market but also go to foreign countries to purchase or lease land for producing grain, the paper mainly refers to the "virtual" is also foreign land;(3) In practice, considering the security and economy of getting grain, I take use of grain international market prices and domestic grain producers price in the different countries to compare, then find appropriate agricultural investment countries。...
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