Research On Evaluation And Forecast Of Sustainable Development In Oil Industry Of Our Country

Petroleum,named for the food or the blood of national industry,holds a wide range of uses and significant values acting as most important strategic material and special good related to people's daily life.As a industry totally relied on petroleum resource , our national petroleum industry plays an important role in promting national economic development.The exploitation and the utilization of oil and gas resources and sustainable and harmony development of social economic and ecological environment becomes the difficlut issues China has to face now.This paper regards the sustainable development system of China's as a whole that consists of four interrelated, interdependent, interact subsystems of resources, economic, social, ecological environment that comes up in a specific level and structure. Base on defining the concept of sustainable development and the current situation analysis of China's petroleum industry,this paper makes an evaluation trend forecasting for the sustainable development and the coordination level of the system, and reveal the structure, function, environment system, benefits and development trends of the system in time and space comprehensively and deeply .Thus solve the problem targetedly, and formulate a correct, practical and feasible strategies for sustainable development.This paper analyzes and summarizes the definition ,concept and features of the petroleum industry and make a definition the sustainability of China's petroleum industry relied on the condition of studies and conclusion of sustainable development theory and methods . Through systems analysis of our national sustainable development system,this paper also acts as the mirror of the theoretical foundation and system study for China's petroleum industry.The analysis of the current situation of sustainable development of petroleum industry is the basis and support for evaluation of sustainable development and trend prediction.This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis and research of the current situation from the point of global and our national oil gas resources and consumption situation, the basic situation of our petroleum industry,the effects on ecologicalenvironment and the preliminary development of petroleum strategy,etc,and paves ways for evaluation and trend forecasting of sustainable development of China's petroleuml industry.Scientific and reasonable index system is the foundation of evaluation.Based on the whole process of dynamic analysis on the sustainable development of national petroleum industry scientifcally and systematically,this paper establishes the guilding ideology , the principles and the framework of the index system,involving the 66 indicators of four aspects of resources, economic, social, ecological environment, which lays a solid foundation for the the analysis, design, planning, forecasting, and decision in the later paper.Different methods of evaluation derived inconsistencies.The evaluation method this paper takes is portfolio evaluation based on consistency,and also brings in the concept of sustainable development level,coordination level, coordination level of sustainable development and the overall coordination level of sustainable development,ect.This paper providing a healthy foundation for rational utilization resourcesand ecological environment promotion by evaluating the sustainable development level of our oil industry from the four aspects of national petroleum industry system and its substem,economic subsystem,social subsystem and the environment subsytem,and analyzing problems existing in thef sustainable development of China's oil industry.National petroleum industry system is a open and complex-structured system contains lots of factors.This paper uses the Grey relational analysis method to sieve the factors,and then make a grey analysis of the selected factor taking the uncertainties and the complexity of the system into account,and makes a forecast on the trend of China's petroleum industry sustainable development during 2009-2015 using SVM.Finally,acording to the predicted results above of the evaluation and trend forecasting of the level of sustainable development of China's petroleum industry and the coordination level of the subsystem,this paper proposes targeted strategies and advices for sustainable development of China's petroleum industry.