Decision-making Models And Operational Mechanisms Of Government On Urban Emergency Management

Government plays important roles in the process of dealing with emergencies. City is the core of society, economics, and culture. Urban emergencies have great effects on social and economic development as well as people's life. The decision-making behaviors of government have direct impacts on the consequences of urban emergencies. The complexity of emergent event makes more challenges to make rapid and correct decisions.Systematic analysis, game theory and behavior theory are employed in this research. This dissertation presents the evolutionary mechanism of urban emergency, dicision-making models, and operational mechanisms for government emergency management. This research contributes to the methods for urban emergency management and provides references to decision making on emergency management.The emergency evolutionary mechanisms are systematicly drawn out from the occurrence, development and diffusion perspectives. Four evolutionary styles are presented, as spread, transformation, ramification, and coupling. A framework of urban emergency management is designed, which includes prevention, preparision, repondence, and resilience. The coodination process and implimentation flows are analyzed at all levels.The subjects of emergency management are discussed. The goals, creteria, and behavior of goverment's decision making in emergency managemnet are analyzed. The principle of how to classify emerencies is presented. The system of urban emergency management is established. k-modes cluster fuzzy model is designed to categorize emergency with relevant algorithm. Non-additive probability decision making model of goverment is designed by analyzing the victims'behavior in emergency. Incentive and punishment mechanisms between central and local govermentare analyzed with static and random game theory. The operational mechanism is presented in six aspects: organization behavior, law-based control, implemmentation, supervision, guarantee, and responding process.A case study of emergency management in Shenzhen is presented from the perspectives of emergency management framework, dicsion making methods, and operational mechanisms. Some problems of Shenzhen goverment's emergency management are identified. Measures and suggestions for improving emergency management in Shenzhen are also provided. Especially, paying more attention to post-assesment to emergency management and establishing systematic pre-solutions for emergent events should be critical tasks of Shenzhen goverment.