Analysis And Estimation Of Stability For Industry Technical Innovation Alliance Based On Knowledge Transfer

Along with the development at a high speed of economic globalization, the market competition is increasingly fierce, and consumer demands are more diversified and more individualized, which enhance requirements of technology innovation for firms. The limited resources of single firm could not satisfy the firm requirements of major technology innovation. It is the key to survival and development of firms that they integrate and utilize technological resources with the agile and effective way in the great range. The industrial technology innovation alliance (ITIA) has been prevailing. How to reduce uncertainties in the operation process, establish stable mechanisms, and solve unstable problems which is closely related with whether firms carry on technology innovation continually to obtain sustainable competitive advantage. By analyzing researches at home and abroad, this paper makes a comprehensive use of game theory, principal-agent theory, dynamic optimization theory and real option theory from the view of knowledge transfer to explore formation, influence, evolution, process, estimation and distribution of the ITIA stability, which enrich perspectives and methods. These results not only provide theoretical basis for these enterprises which would seek further development through establishing the ITIA, but also afford methodological supports for selections of the optimal dynamic competitive and cooperative relationship and managerial flexibility.Firstly, this paper provides the connotation and nature of the ITIA and its stability based on definitions about strategic alliances from the different perspectives, explores the formation of its stability in detail from the perspective of resources theory, transaction-cost theory, social dilemma theory and game theory. Meanwhile, this paper analyzes the type, process and factor of knowledge transfer, and provides the analyzing framework of its stability.Secondly, this paper divides knowledge inputs into the independent innovation inputs and the jointed innovation inputs, establishes the function about profits of knowledge transfer to explore affections of knowledge inputs and related parameters on the stability. And then, the model about the knowledge transfer efficiency is established under the benefit-cost framework to analyze influences of it on the stability. Meanwhile, integrated with real options theory, this paper applies Cournot-Nash game theory and dynamic optimization methods to research effects of knowledge acquisition ability on members'strategic decisions including maintenances, mergers or dissolutions.Thirdly, this paper divides the value produced by the knowledge transfer process in the alliance into basic value, added value, synergetic value, further-developmental value and negative value, the dynamic system equation for the alliance based on the knowledge transfer value by using the system decision theory is established, and discusses the stability of solutions and evolutionary stable strategy.Fourthly, this paper mainly explores the influences of partner selection behavior in the formation stage, knowledge transfer decision-making in the operation stage, and investment benefit forecast in the outcome stage on the stability. In the formation stage, the market information is incomplete and dissymmetrical, and the maker's rationality is limited, which results in that herding behaviors occur. In the operation stage, the precondition of the existence and development for the ITIA is the knowledge marginal revenue of the core firm is large enough. In the outcome stage, the less the prediction error of investment income for members, the more ITIA is stable.Fifthly, this paper establishes a two-stage dynamic game model to explore the influences of equity structure and knowledge learning ability on the stability, pointing out the ITIA is stable, as long as the coordinated cost is small enough and the ownership allocation level falls in the stable range. At the same time, to promote its stable operation, the incentive mechanism is designed using the principal-agent theory based on the knowledge transfer to explore how the core firm designs the superior incentive mechanism to encourage partners to transfer knowledge actively.Finally, this paper utilizes the cooperation game theory to establish the profit distribution model among members from the view of knowledge transfer, using different methods of profit distribution to design the rational distribution program of cooperative profit so that the distribution program is fair, impartial and rational, which can promote members are willing to maintain the its stable.