Study On Fluctuation Mechanism Of Commercial Residential Market And System Simulation

Real estate industry is one of the pillar industries in our country, which plays a very important role for enhancing national economy development, boosting the course of urbanization and improving people's living standards. Commercial residential market is an important composition of real estate market, which influences directly national economy boom and people's lives standards, if it can advance with stable, persistent, healthy situation. Its development pace becomes very fast with deepening of reform of housing in our country since 1998; meanwhile, commercial residential market shows itself irrational fluctuation and vibration as a whole or in parts in our country.This paper starts from actual situation of real estate market in our country, probes deeply into fundamental reasons of commercial residential market fluctuation and its operation process. It aims at exploring interior mechanism of fluctuation of residential market and its transmmsion process, and finding key factors which influence the fluctuation of commercial residential market, in order to find theoretical foundation for restraining the irrational market fluctuation, by means of policy test and validity of policy implementation, promotes healthy and stable development of commercial residential market in our country.Firstly this paper makes a clear boundary for relevant concepts of residence, commercial residential market, and its fluctuation, the scope of the study, the object of study are determinded, then ascertains theory basis of the study, summarizes essential rule of fluctuation of the commercial residential market. Secondly this paper takes transaction prices, sale area, sale volume as indices for reflecting commercial residential market fluctuation, makes quantitative analysis adopting the method of econometrics, describes clearly realistic behavior of the fluctuation of commercial residential market. Thirdly this paper makes a careful and systematical analysis and statement for inevitability and effect of market fluctuation existence.This paper makes itself clear that players which is involved in commercial residential market, divides the commercial residential market system into five sub-systems, i.e. population and economy, land, finance, supply, demand in accordance with system analysis for residential market. Meanwhile this paper makes a particular and deep research for game situation and basis of game generation, based on careful analysis for exterior environment of commercial residential market, then sets up mutual game frame of the fluctuation of residential market. Mechanism of formation of residential market fluctuation and its operation process are described systematically, by means of demonstrating game conduct of game players which influence relationship of supply and demand.This paper studies further operation dynamics and process of fluctuation of commercial residential market based on deep research for interior mechanism of fluctuation of residential market. Analysis is made for exterior impetus and interior dynamics and transmission mechanism with the aid of quantitative analysis, and comprehensive theoritical model of fluctuation is established, i.e. exterior impact and interior transmmion model of residential market. Then causal relationship for aboved mentioned sub-systems of residential market is established, based on analysis of feedback circles for residential market by applying business cycle and system dynamics, and general SD model of operation of commercial residential market is also established.Simulation study is made for the fluctuation of commercial residential market based on above-mentioned SD model of residential market, inevitability and validity of SD model are tested in accordance with dynamics equations of population and economy, land, finance, supply, demand. We take commercial residential market of Beijing city as a case study, take annual sale volume, transaction price, sale area, supply-demand ratio etc. as study indices, analyze their results of simulation of SD model, and then find key factors which affect the fluctuation of commercial residential market.Policy test is made for restraining the fluctuation of commercial residential market, taken population policy, land policy, pre-sale policy, and rate policy as policy means of macro-regulation for market. Some implementation suggestions and measures are put forward for keeping residential market steady and healthy and restraining the fluctuation of market in accordance with results of policy test.This paper makes deep study for exterior operation environment and interior generation mechanism of the fluctuation of commercial residential market against existing problems of residential market in our country, finds some key factors and efficient countermeasures, these study results and conclusion can further enrich theory and method about issues of real estate market and economy of real estate in our country, some countermeasures and suggestions are also very constructive and suggestive for entire real estate market and development of real estate economy in our country.