Research On Chongqing Commercial Residence Market Development

As the national economy high-speed development and per capita income continued increase, the residence requirements of Chongqing citizens were largely released. Meanwhile, product residence investment high-speed increase and the supply and demand both increase contributed to Chongqing commercial residence market high-speed development. Commodity residence industry has grown into an important industry of the national economy. But the unstable factors as supply and demand structure disequilibrium, price not reasonable, and space layout imbalance and so on exist. So detailed studying on the Chongqing commercial residence market is very important to keep Chongqing commercial residence market health and rapid development during this critical period.This studying focuses on four aspects as the commodity residence market demand, market supply, market price and spatial structure. The studying choose the gray correlation analysis method to identify the key affective factors of demand, and use multivariable systems grey forecasting model to forecast the demand due to the newly-born population. The studying comprehensively predict Chongqing commercial residence total demand in next five years, combining with city update, improving type needs and external purchase. The studying comprehensively predict Chongqing commercial residence market supply capacity in next five years, using Granger causality test model and correlation coefficient, fitting prediction equations and combining with the overall urban planning. Then, the studying analyses the structure of Chongqing commercial residence market supply and demand, combining with the low-cost and male rent construction for the next five years. And, certain supply shortfalls there exist. The current housing price-income ratio was adopted to evaluate Chongqing commercial residence market prices. The price is reasonable, and three times moving average model is used to predict the Chongqing commercial residence market price for next five years. Combined with Chongqing urban structure and the overall urban planning, the studying forecasts space structure of Chongqing commercial residence market. According to the future Chongqing commercial residence market supply and demand structure, price and space distribution development situation, the studying proposes the measures to security Chongqing commercial residence market healthy and stable development.