| Scholars believe that the housing market can be divided into incremental marketand stock market. Incremental market and stock market interaction can be formed, theinteractive development can help people to improve the living environment, ensuringthe healthy development of the housing market. Recently the current high pricesgradually become the hot topic in society, in the face of rising prices, manylow-income people cannot buy houses. The reasons for this phenomenon is that thestock market is not developed, and some of incremental market speculative buyinghomes. The result is that the rigid demand has not been fully meet. Therefore, study ofinteraction mechanism of the increment and stock market is very necessary. It canprovide reference for government regulation of the housing market.First of all, in this paper, the increment and stock market system is analyzed. Thesystem is divided into three basic subsystems, and six factors subsystem. Next, eachsubsystem is detailed analysis. In this paper, by using system dynamics theory andmethod, increment and stock market interaction mechanism of the simulation model isset up. The model is simulated by using Vensim PLE. Based on the housing marketdata of Xi’an from2002to2013, the housing market data, the development trend ofresidential increment and stock market was predicted of Xi’an from2014to2020. Afterrepeated inspection of the model, it is found that the model error is within±5%.Thenby changing the proportion of down payment, loan fixed number of year of housingstock, preferential loans and macro policies such as transaction taxes and fees, themodel was simulated to discover regulation policy influence on the increment andstock market. Simulation results are analyzed. It is concluded that when the incremental house price is too high, the government can increase the transaction of thestock market, to adjust the supply and demand of housing market. When incrementalhousing vacancy rate is higher, the government can by reducing the stock market, topromote the incremental market trading, and achieve the balance of supply anddemand in the housing market. Finally, this paper puts forward policy Suggestions,such as stock market transaction cost, strengthen the support of financial institutions tothe housing stock trading and regulating the housing stock trading intermediary anddecrease the cost of land. The purpose of these Suggestions is to revitalize theregulation of the stock market policy, and promote the coordination interactiondevelopment of incremental market and stock market, and make the real estate markethealthy and sustainable development. |
