Accident Risk Analysis And Route Selection Method Of Long-distance Oil And Gas Transportation Pipeline

Pipeline transport is the scheme of first choice for long-distance transport of oil products and natural gas. The pipeline selection method based on risk analysis plays a positive role because it can guarantee the safety of the persons around the pipeline and the safe operation of long-distance pipeline. On the basis of analysis of typical accidents occurring in the long-distance oil and gas transportation pipeline, conducting of risk factors research in five aspects including storage and transport media, statistics of the failure data on European and American long-distance pipeline, and determination of the proportion of the accidents in China resulting from four kinds of factors (the third party damage, erosion, design and false operation), this dissertation established the long-distance pipeline failure probability revision model based on risk factor analysis. By constructing the computation program for accident consequence and simulating the jet fire and explosion, the influential scope of thermal radiation and explosion shock wave was identified. Then, the allowable risk standard for China’s long-distance oil and gas transportation pipeline was laid down. It was suggested that3×10-7/year,1×10-6/year,5×10-6/year and5×10-5/year should be considered as the personal allowable risk standard for four types of typical object. The pipeline route selection model which accident risk and construction cost were taken as two optimized targets was established. The method of calculation of individual death probability in long-distance oil and gas transportation pipeline was put forward. At last, the solution of the pipeline selection model was sought by employing dynamic programming algorithm, which was applied in engineering cases. The research results of this dissertation provide scientific and reasonable method for route selection of long-distance oil and gas transportation pipeline.