Research On The Early Warning Decision Models And Methods Of Air Traffic Control Safety Risks

The civil aviation industry in our country presents the high speed development state, air traffic flow sustained growth, airspace environment increasingly complex, aviation industry characteristics of "safety first" put forward higher request to the air traffic control, however, bottlenecks effect of our country air traffic control service support capacity is becoming more and more serious, if cannot be effectively improve ATC safety level, there will be an increasing number of civil aviation accidents and signs.The requirements of air traffic control system for risk management have from "after process" to "prevention" stage, from experience management to system safety risk early warning management stage. Due to safety risk of ATC system involved in terms of people, equipment, environment, management, sources of risk is increasing, and the formation of the risk is increasingly complex. Therefore, to strengthen the research of ATC safety risk early warning decision model and method, it can help to further optimize the efficiency of early risk warning and improve the level of risk decision. This dissertation integrated using the modern risk management theory, safety science and complex science theory, system theory, fault diagnosis theory, decision-making theory and other related disciplines theory and method, through the multidisciplinary academic frontier content cross together, has an important research value. The whole dissertation is composed of8parts as follows:The first part describes the research background and topics of the sources, clear research objectives and research significance, identified the content and methods based on the review of research at home and abroad;The second part expounds the ATC safety risk types and features, on the basis of induction and comparison types and features of the early warning and decision model, made defined the connotation of ATC safety risk early warning decision and the decision model, and summary the functions, types and method system to ate safety risk early warning decision;The third part focus on the study of ATC safety risk early warning prediction decision model, based on discussing task, principle, procedure and the operation mode of ATC safety risk early warning decision model, appling the grey prediction model, artificial neural network predictive regression model and spectrum analysis technology to system analysis ATC safety risk decision-making information release;The fourth part system combed the connotation of safety risk assessment warning decision, aiming at the dilemma on evaluation diagnosis early warning decision, from the point of view of guard against false alarm, it points out that the index of information redundancy reduction, decision device selection and risk threshold value of the reasonable determination is the main task of the early warning evaluation decision model, and using rough set, gray clustering evaluation and optimal segmentation algorithm to being calculated and analysed for three types of decision task;The fifth part on the basis of situation the safety risk early warning decision model in detail, using system dynamics to process the simulation analysis of safety risk trend prediction and precontrol strategy optimization, and in the light of the important role of expert knowledge for early warning decision, making use of the characteristic root group decision making method to do the example research on precontrolled plan optimization;The sixth part on the basis of the questionnaire survey and interview research, put on the key influence factor hypothesis of the implementation to ATC safety risk early warning decision, and by using structural equation model to make confirmatory analysis for the main factors on ATC safety risk early warning decision;The seventh part according to the task type of ATC safety risk early warning decision model and the dominant factor of implementation early warning decision, from the three aspects of assurance of organization, guarantee mechanism and development early warning decision support system, expounded the security strategy of the implementation of safety risk early warning decision;The eighth part summarizes the full text, sums up the main innovation point in this dissertation, and prospects the later research to early warning decision model, early warning decision method and the security strategy system.