Research On Decision Support System For Optimal Allocation Of Water Resources In Ningxia

Water shortage has become one of the main bottleneck restricting the economic development of ningxia. How to maintain a harmonious relationship between human and the water nature, both rich and poor areas of social equity and economic efficiency of water resources conditions, solve the water resources between regions, between departments and the problem of optimal allocation of water between target is hot and difficult problem in the field of water resources and water-saving irrigation.Based on the practical problems of how to optimize the allocation of water resources in ningxia under the condition of climate change and human activities, the ETo space-time distribution of Ningxia, the main climate factor affecting ETo and ETo prediction method are studied;, the main characteristic of ningxia climate change in the past53years (1960-2012), the future trends and the impact of future climate change on agricultural water are analyzed; Water resources optimal allocation model is set up, and some new multi-objective optimization algorithms are used to solve the model; the decision support system for the optimized allocation of water resources is developed which integrated the3S technology and the climate analysis model into it. This DSS provide aided decision for sustainable utilization of water resources in Ningxia. The main research results are:1. The ETo spatial distribution of Ningxia is increase gradually from the south to the north, the maximum value appeared in the central arid zone, and the minimum appeared in the southern mountains. Months of ETo in ningxia region difference is bigger, the maximum value appeared in June,151.8mm/month; Minimum value is in December,26.7mm/month. Ningxia district and each partition (Yellow River irrigation areas in northern, central arid zone, southern mountains) of ETo has obvious interannual increase trend. Ningxia ETo growth is10.7mm/10a, in the years of average ETo in1020mm. The main meteorological elements affecting the ningxia region ET0is average temperature. The temperature of Ningxia have a significant rise in the past53years. This is the main reason for the rise in ETo. Calibrated empirical coefficient of Hargreaves formula for Ningxia area, this provides the calculation of ningxia ETo method, in the case of lack of meteorological data. Tried using KNN data mining algorithm to predict the new way of ETo.2. The temperatures rise obviously in Ningxia past53years under the influence of global climate change; the climate of Ningxia has a trend of warm and dry. The average growth rate of the temperature is0.32℃/10a from1960to2012. The Mann-Knedall mutation testing method is used to detect the temperature mutations in Ningxia, found that the temperature mutations in ningxia region, around1990into relatively warm climate. The evaporation mutated, but each mutation time of partitions is not same. The time of the North of Yellow River irrigation area is in the late1970s, the time of the central arid zone is in the early1980s, the time of the southern mountain area is in the late1980s. After the mutation, evaporation began to decrease.This paper found that the paradox of evaporation in Ningxia, and revealed the significant reduction in the diurnal range of temperature is the main cause of this phenomenon. By wavelet analysis method, studied the climate change cycle of Ningxia in past53years, the results show that the rainfall, the evaporation and the average temperature of Ningxia has28a cycle. On the basis of the above research, set different climate change scenarios, studied the impact of climate change on crop irrigation water requirement under the condition of irrigation area and constant planting structure; Results show that the climate warming causes the agricultural irrigation water increases in Ningxia, it will aggravate the contradiction in water use.3. Analyzed the status quo of industry water use efficiency of Ningxia in2009; predicted the water consumption departments on the available water supply and water demand of Ningxia in different reliability levels (50%,75%,90%) of different planning years (2020,2030), and analyzed the relationship between the future supply and demand of water in Ningxia.The multi-objective optimization allocation of water resources model was established, using a variety of multi-objective optimization algorithm (NSGA-Ⅱ, MOEA, GDE3, MOEA/D, NSGA-Ⅱ) to solve the model, finally, made a comprehensive analysis of the performance of each algorithm and the result of optimized allocation of water resources. Overall, the situation of water resources of Ningxia is not optimistic in future, need to strengthen the construction of water-saving society, and the unified management of water resources to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources.4. Analyzed the defects in the traditional decision support system for the optimized allocation of water resources under the new situation in the new era; proposed optimization allocation of water resources decision support system which based on3S-W, the system on the basis of the traditional decision support system of imperial coupling3S (GIS, RS, GPS) and the weather analysis model. Strengthen meteorological data storage and analysis ability, emphasizes the ability of combination of3S to process the data by3S technology. Described in detail the system architecture and its internal climate subsystem, the3S subsystem, the integration patterns, models, methods, etc; The Mixed programming framework is established, solved the heterogeneous component integration technology, defined the multi-language mixed programming interface, made the data encapsulation protocol, finally developed a decision support system for the optimized allocation of water resources in ningxia.