A Study Of Bidding Decision-making In Construction Project Within Incomplete Unit-price Contract

With construction market bidding system specifying and maturing, the competition among contractors in bidding process becomes increasingly fierce, resulting in profits of China’s construction enterprises generally low. The reason for kithe price type of contract bidding process, bidders worried that too much will be lost chances of winning the tender offer, the tender offer is too low on the other hand turn drastically reduced corporate profit margins. The existence of these problems led to the bidder bidding decision into trouble. The fundamental reason is that bidders do not form a reasonable bidding strategy system, but blindly trying to lower the tender offer mediate these conflicts. Eventually leading to a vicious cycle of enterprise development, and not conducive to the sustainable development of the construction market. So, how to build a scientific decision-making processes and methods tender, under the guidance of construction companies on contract asymmetric information and incomplete contract conditions to improve their probability of winning and revenue generation, has become a scientific problem to be solved. Based on the scientific issues of deconstruction, the formation of research the following key issues:(1)The empirical analysis of the factors affecting winning bidders probabilityFirstly, identify the main factors influencing the probability of winning bidders with the literature review method; secondly, using clustering analysis method to identify the factors and summarized as business indicators, technical index and management index three dimensions; Again, using the method of principal component analysis, to identify the variables to successive selection, will be the minimum value characteristics of the eigenvectors corresponding to the variable in the largest component of the variables. After three variables selection, carries on the comparison to the total variance contribution ratio of the remaining variables, the results show that the remaining variables, tender offer contribution rate reached 50.021%, and its characteristic value is greater than 1, which is the highest contribution rate index dimension, namely this is the first principal component, and also the most important factor to influence the winning bidders probability.(2) The research of contractor’s winning probability maximization strategyBased on the existing evaluation methods of the study, we found that the business target, under the condition of random complex pre-tender estimate when the bidder’s bid price is the principle of minimal points when the winning probability is the largest, which is decomposed into two key problems, namely the pre-tender estimate weight and lower rate of prediction to owner as well as the average for competitors in the bid quotation level forecast.First of all, determine the most likely value interval of the owner, pre-tender estimate weight and down rate with the monte carlo mothed. Secondly, build bidding competition based on incomplete information static game average price forecasting model, predict randomness composite base price bidding under the condition of the average price level of competitors; Finally, an empirical analysis of this article build based on the randomness of compound base price under the condition of bidders to maximize the winning probability of bidding price model is verified.(3) The research of the winning probability maximization under the contractor unbalanced bidding strategiesOn the premise of guarantee the winning probability maximization of this research, based on the consideration of corporate revenue, the contractor can use a loophole in the incomplete contract, to predict the future possible changes, and formulate corresponding unbalanced bidding strategies accordingly. On the one hand, using fault tree analysis and case analysis, analyze possible chance change point, identify, classify, extracting the contractor controllable opportunities for change from the listing character description which is not complete and incomplete geological exploration data. On the other hand, for the implementation of the unbalanced bidding strategies, uses the linear programming model, discusses the optimal solution of unbalanced bid scheme, which provides reference for the contractor selecting tendering scheme.