Study On Agriculture Natural Disaster Risk Management Of Heilongjiang Province Based On Farmer’s Response

Under the background of global climate and environment changes, agricultural natural disasters in Heilongjiang province, even in China, show the tendency that frequency of disaster quickens, the scope of disaster widens, and the degree of disaster becomes more serious, and economic loss becomes worse. Among all provinces in China, disasters in Heilongjiang province are the worst, and crops’ damage area is the largest among all main grain-producing areas. At the same time, Heilongjiang province is an important grain-producing area and commodity grain base. As a result, increasing risk on agricultural natural disaster in Heilongjiang province threatens seriously to domestic grain market supply and guaranteeing national grain securities. Under such circumstance, how to get the best security guarantee on agricultural economy by risk management and at the least cost in order to maintain sustainable development on agricultural economy becomes an urgent task for Heilongjiang province and China.Generally speaking, current risk management system and research on agricultural natural disaster in China emphasize more on government as the main body, and take help and compensation as main strategies. While farmers, the undertakers of disaster risk and the performers of risk management strategies, are in passive positions. Current research on farmers’ risk strategies is simplex and not systematic, and pays less attention to farmers’ risk resistance behavior. The dissertation, on the basis of farmers as the micro-layer, from the angel of risk management theories, sets up natural disaster risk management system taking farmers as the main body. According to statistics data in Heilongjiang Province and farmers’ field research data, using all kinds of positive analysis methods, the dissertation studies farmers’ respondent behavior on risk management strategies and the effectiveness of these strategies, builds logistic model, and analyzes influence factors of risk management strategies taken by farmers. The dissertation consists of8chapters and divides into five parts. The main content and conclusion is as follows:The first part is introduction. It describes the background, aim and significance of the research, and systematically reviews and summarizes research results at home and abroad on agricultural natural disaster and farmers’ behavior, and then comments accordingly. It figures out the paper’s beginning point and explains the research thought and framework. It explains the paper’s main research methods and analysis technology methods, and also shows the data and its source.The second part analyzes agricultural natural disaster in Heilongjiang and its tendency. Through time series data analysis on current situation, characteristics and future change tendency of agricultural natural disaster in Heilongjiang, the relevance between natural disaster and grain gross product is analyzed by cycle growth of rate, the influence on grain product and farmers’income is estimated.The third part is theoretical analysis framework on agricultural natural disaster risk management. It explains theoretical foundation of agricultural natural disaster risk management; It defines the connotation of agricultural natural disaster risk and agricultural natural disaster risk management; From theoretical angel of risk management, it suggests the content of agricultural natural disaster risk management and builds agricultural natural disaster risk management strategy systems, including four aspects, namely:risk-prevention strategy, risk transfer strategy, risk diversification strategy and risk relief strategy, and further defines the research object of each strategy.The forth part includes the forth, fifth, sixth and seventh chapters, which is the core part of the dissertation. According to farmers’ investigation data, natural disaster risk protection strategy, risk transfer strategy, risk diversification strategy and risk relief strategy are analyzed by taking good strains of corn seeds, water saving irrigation technology, multiple planting ways and agriculture insurance as research objects.The fifth part is the Countermeasures on Improving Farmer’s Ability of Fighting Natural Disasters. According to the four models above, comprehensive conclusions are made. On the basis of the conclusion, policy and suggestions which can prompt natural disaster risk management strategies to carry out effectively are proposed from microcosmic and macroscopical two levels.The conclusion is as follow:(1) Due to the natural disaster in Heilongjiang province has increased trend, and farmers’ adoption of risk management strategies is not ideal. So under the current conditions that the state still do not change, the loss of natural disasters risk in Heilongjiang province further increase.(2) Farmer’s choosing behavior of disaster risk management strategy is rational,and the rational choice is determine with resource endowment of farmer oneself, risk perception and the natural environment conditions. But because the market is incomplete and asymmetric information, from a social welfare perspective, this rational behavior is suboptimal economic decision-making, and need government or third party to correct the farmer behavior deviation.(3) Farmers’ access to information is limited and the quality is not high, the main channel is the traditional television and other mass media and interpersonal communication, and the risk management technology provider, promotion of agricultural science and Technology Department, the insurance companies, did not become the main information service subject.(4) Farmer’s family manages characteristic is more significant than the personality characteristics on risk management strategy behavior. Government policy on non-engineering strategy is not significantly affected. Farmers’s risk perception, risk management cognition and social capital on risk management strategies adopted by farmer is significant.(5) From the perspective of risk management, this paper builds a farmer as the main body of agricultural natural disaster risk management system, and according to integrated regression results, puts forward to countermeasure proposal promoting farmer’s resilience of natural disaster from microcosmic and macroscopical two levels.