Research On The Influence Of Flood And Drought Disasters On Food Production And Risk Management

As a developing agricultural country, China’s agricultural development and food security,has always been at the heart of national development strategies. However, China’s agriculture,especially grain production, has been seriously affected by flood and drought. In recent years,with the global warming, extreme weather events are more and more widely spread, China faces the severe situation of grain production. In Inundation and drought agricultural risk management,China still exists some deficiencies,such as infrastructure of flood control and drought relief is weak, method of risk-transfe, disaster forecast and early-warning capacity is low, and disaster protection capabilities is lackness,which seriously affects chinese sustainable development of agriculture and food production.Aiming at the problems that flood and drought disaster impact on food production and the risk management, The paper will be act China agricultural continued development as the guiding ideology, achieve agricultural security development and food stable yield as for target, for has flood and drought disaster on food production of effect and the risk management aspects of research, and this based Shang for China agricultural flood and drought disaster caused food production of main year and main area for recognition, then for effective of disaster forecast and warning analysis, For the area of agricultural flood and drought disaster prevention and management to provide a scientific basis and a valuable reference.Main content and conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly, Risk management of flood and drought disasters in agriculture-related concepts and overview of the basic theory system. On this basis, selected during the last 30 years from 1984 until 2013 to examine China’s grain production and the variation of flood and drought disasters in agriculture. According to China’s total grain acreage, the area sown to grain crops sown areas of specific gravity, average annual acreage, food production, average annual grain output,changes in indicators such as average annual grain yield per unit area examine the evolution of China’s grain production. According to the regional average in China the area sown to grain,annual grain crops accounted for, the annual national Commissariat of food production, average annual grain output accounts for food production share, and changes in indicators such as grain yield per unit area examine the distributions of food production. According to the various regions of China and 30 crops annually, average annual natural disasters natural disasters disaster area inundated area, annual average drought disaster in drought-affected areas, the average annual area, average annual flood disaster area, annual floods inundated area, the average annual disaster affected area, annual changes in other indicators such as disaster areas tostudy the evolution of flood and drought disasters in agriculture.Secondly, further design has food disaster production rate and food disaster production volume index formula, from production rate and reduction production two a aspects respectively set has five a grade of agricultural flood and drought disaster food production judge standard,and using data calculation has China and regions 30 between of food annual drought affected rate, and food annual drought disaster rate, and food annual flood affected rate, and food annual flood disaster rate, and food drought production rate, and food drought reduction production,and food flood production rate, and Flood food production volume index values and their changes over time, to reflect the effects of flood and drought disasters in agriculture and food production caused by. And according to the standard of judgment for flood and drought disasters in agriculture and grain production of agricultural flood and drought disasters in China mainly year and major areas to be identified.Thirdly, to affected rate, and disaster rate and production rate for research object, according to agricultural flood and drought disaster of approximate Markov nature and features, and agricultural flood and drought disaster sequence of non-symmetric, building has agricultural flood and drought disaster integrated evaluation index, and application QAR and OLS model on China agricultural flood and drought disaster integrated index established forecast model,science using fluctuations coefficient classification method will over divided for different police limited interval, developed has corresponding of cordon. Through empirical analyses three aspects of policy implications can be drawn, is China’s flood and drought disasters in agriculture with decay, typically do not need to make frequent adjustments to management of flood and drought, keep a normal, stable management mechanism. Second level from low to high percentile level, China’s sustainable agriculture for the next phase of flood and drought impact smaller, random effects is growing. Third, agricultural flood and drought disasters in China over the long term are dynamic, this brings the line changes, you need to adjust the warning levels according to the actual situation in order to achieve accuracy, validity of the warning. Want to reasonably predict the result of disaster forecast and early warning, for agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation in China to provide more scientific and rational basis.Finnally, analysis has China agricultural flood and drought disaster risk management of status and the exists problem, reference has abroad developed agricultural flood and drought disaster risk management of rich experience, proposed has China should from agricultural flood and drought disaster risk management of tool system construction, and Government and farmers of agricultural flood and drought disaster risk management role, and agricultural flood and drought disaster risk management of market transfer mechanism, and agricultural flood and drought disaster risk management run guarantees mechanism, aspects to explore strengthening agricultural flood and drought disaster risk management of related countermeasures, For agriculture safety and provide decision support for the sustainable development of food production.