Empirical Analysis Of Agriculture Integreted Province Natural Disasters Impact On Agricultural Yield In Hunan Province

Hunan is a major agricultural province. It is also a populous province. Ensuring stabilize grain production is not only an economic problem, but also an important guarantee of social stability. The main factor affecting grain production is cultivated area. The cultivated area can be guaranteed by state subsidies and control farmland conversion. In addition, there are a lot of undetermined factors affecting the grain yield. And agricultural natural disasters have a significant impact on grain output. Therefore, strengthening the study of agricultural natural disasters and reducing their effects on grain output are important to guarantee Hunan grain yield.In order to accurately assess the impact of natural disasters on grain yield fluctuation, in this paper, we use the data related to integrated natural disaster and grain yield of Hunan Province from 1978 to 2013 to calculate the disaster rate, the hazard rate, the disaster fluctuation index, the hazard fluctuation index, the fluctuation index of grain production and the disaster fluctuation index of natural disaster in Hunan Province. We find that agricultural integrated natural disaster in Hunan Province is normal disaster, and serious disaster is follow it. With time going on, disaster occurs more frequently and more serious. The hazard rate is over the disaster rate in some years which shows that anti-disaster ability of Hunan Province is poor. The yield has increased but the fluctuation of it is large caused by the natural disaster. Based on the integrated natural disasters and the fluctuation characteristics of grain yield of Hunan province, this paper analyzes the correlation of the integrated natural disasters and grain yield by the VAR model and predicts the characters of integrated natural disasters and the grain yield over the next seven years. We found that the integrated natural disaster is negative related and hysteretic to the grain yield in Hunan Province. The more serious natural disaster is, the more yield decreases. Additionally, the extent of the disaster will have a negative impact on food production in the next period of time. Therefore, this paper give some advice on risk management of integrated natural disaster to provide theoretical and practical basis on improving the efficiency on the risk management of natural disaster and making grain yield stab.