Risk Assessment Of Grain Yield And Food Security Research In Chongqing

The flood and drought disaster is one kind of worldwide basis natural disaster, simultaneously it is also a worldwide basis difficult problem.The flood and drought disaster has the huge destructive effect to the grain production and output,creates the enormous direct economic losses.The flood and drought disaster is serious in our country.Because it has the special terrain landform and climate,the flood and droughts disaster is one of the major natural disasters in Chongqing.Its influence is the widest,its frequency is the highest and its loss is the heaviest.The especially big drought disaster in 2006 and the especially big flood in 2007 had created the heavy loss and the influence for the grain production and output in Chongqing.There are topics to appraise the risk of the grain output,and analyze the food security in Chongqing.This article attempts to research those topics,thus serves for agriculture sustainable development in Chongqing.The full text mainly includes six major parts:The first part elaborated the topic background,the research status as well as research significance,mentality and method which this article selects.The second part introduced agricultural produce status and conditions in Chongqing.The third part analyzed the flood and drought disaster,which is the central natural disaster,include its overall situations,the origins,the characteristics as well as its effects on the grain produce and output in Chongqing,thereinto particular analyzed the effects which created by the especially big drought disaster in 2006 and the especially big flood in 2007.The fourth part for this article is the key research content.On the basis of yields data of Chongqing from 1985 to 2007,grain yield was divided into trending yield and meteorological yield by means of linear moving average.Meteorological yield was processed further to get the relative meteorological yield,in which the negative values were taken as the object for research.According to the risk assessment theory and its techniques and methods,the probabilities corresponding to different levels of yield reduction.The fifth part analyzed the food security status of Chongqing on the basis of the effects which creates by the flood and drought disaster.The sixth part proposed the countermeasures of food security of Chongqing, according to the characteristics of the flood and drought disaster,and some resisting disaster experiences,proposed the effective prevention means.The seventh part is the conclusions and the insufficiencies.Under the present science and technology condition,the flood and drought disaster could not be permanently cured.How to effectively abate the losses of the food is an urgent topic. Not only need understand origins and laws of the disaster,but also command the more effectively means.