An Econometric Analysis On The Bubbles Of Chinese Painting And Calligraphy Art Market

Chinese traditional culture has an amazing long history, that’s why the uniquecharm of Chinese painting and calligraphy art can enjoy high reputation at home andabroad. Due to the scarcity of painting and calligraphy art, it has the natural limit andnon-renewable, the market price have been rather rigid. Under the financial crisis,thetrend didn’t change.With the rapid development in recent years, Chinese painting andcalligraphy art market is showing a obvious tendency of the bubbles. Chinese high valuepainting and calligraphy art has occupied more than eighty percent of the market share,as a critical part of art investment, it not only leads art auction market,but still guide theart investment direction.Even on the investment stategy design and auction for theinternational art item has a great influence. As the art market experts Li Yanjun (2012)said:"Qi Baishi’s calligraphy and painting, can be seldom seen one million one five yearsago, but all of a sudden it bid up to four hundred million.Can you imgine how big thespan is? It should be said an absolute bubble.The Shang Dynasty bronze, gold or silverbottles and the Tang Dynasty tea pot, including paintings since the Ming Dynasty, theSong Dynasty calligraphy also climb to such top price level, so this is a bubble, whichshould be without doubt."Chinese art market stands up from street business and develops into bidding-fortype of transaction characteristics of the auction market, finally steps into being linedwith international standards auction market.This process experienced more than10years.Bubbles naturally appears, but it is a bad news for the healthy development of the artmarket.In attempt to unfolding Chinese painting and calligraphy art market, therefore,dependent on analyzing the difficulties of the development of Chinese painting andcalligraphy art market,describing the bubble tendency, revealing the existing problems,regulating the institutional environment of Chinese painting and calligraphy art marketroad.The final end of this thesis is to interpret the important theory and its practicalsignificance and promote health degree of Chinese painting and calligraphy art market.Sustainable development is critical for this special market.The paper consists of five parts:The first part is the first chapter called by the introduction, mainly presents the research background and makes clear where the theoretical and practical significance liesin, arranges the content and structure, points out research ideas and methods of this study,and indicate the innovations and shortcomings.The second part is also the second chapter, focuses on review of the economicstheory of the art market,including domestic and foreign literature related.Through thelong research list on the literature at home and abroad to find out what theory and whatperspective is applicable to the analysis of painting and calligraphy art market.Theempirical analysis method is also investigate in attempt to base research on building ofEconomectrics theory. Chinese calligraphy and painting works of art bubbles can attainthe relatively scientific and comprehensive viewpoint.The third part as the core of the whole article includes the third, the fourth or fifthchapter.It focuses on the analysis of bubble’s tracking and development trend. Chinesepainting and calligraphy art market showed that the bubbles not only brought thedevelopment of Chinese painting and calligraphy art market on evaluation system,butalso the chaos of prices which seriously deviates from the normal orbit.Then thespeculation prevalent, serious tax evasion and other series of negative effects lined up.We can use the modern model and methods of statistics, econometrics, time seriesanalysis and game theory in investigating this art market.The bubbles which appears onChinese calligraphy and painting art market is not impossible for qualitative andquantitative empirical analysis.So,on this solid basis, further analysis of the causes ofinfluencing factors of Chinese painting and calligraphy art market bubble becomespossible.The fourth part is the sixth chapter, introduces evaluation system constructiondesign, their innovations and improvements of gallery management, art market rentalmarket, trading system construction and the tax system design of foreign mature artmarkets. These experiences have value for the purpose of standardizing the market ofChinese calligraphy and painting art, transforming it into healthy development road.The fifth part is in the seventh chapter.This chapter is based on the above analysisand research and devoted to point out concretely how to weaken bubbles trend and renewcultural value.In addition to give suggestions on establishing and improving the currenttrading system, on maintaining a healthy and sustainable development process of Chinese painting and calligraphy art marke.As concern to promote the development ofcultural industry in China,to emplify upper class people’s spiritual and cultural life,thispart put forward a series of measures.These measures include how to direct the investorswho try to invest into financial products of art fund, how to improve the technical barrierto identify the authenticity of painting and calligraphy,how to revise art tax loopholes tostrengthen supervision,and how to establish the delisting criteria of art share transactions.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following aspects.Firstly,it isthe first time to put forward the perspective of economics of art market, using normativeanalysis combined with empirical analysis, combining qualitative analysis andquantitative analysis method, to study bubble problem on Chinese calligraphy andpainting art market.Secondly,The suggestions are given on how to enjoy their property ofart pieces by an artist. This right is not ye recognized or even clearly defined in China.Artists and his legal successors should enjoy wo rks pro perty rights, should have theright to ask for not only an auction revenue for only one time, but also should have theright to ask a fixed ratio of value-added part of auction revenue during a certain numberof years after the artist died.That is the basic meaning of droit de suite, it is consistentwith the copyright enjoyed by authors. With a clear definition and segmentation of artproperty, collusion phenomenon can be fundamentally controlled.And the prcingbehavior of calligraphy and painting works of art auction market can avoid thecollusion.It is happened between the gallery with auction companies on reserve pricedetermining and art’s true or false assessment.This fearful problem can be thoroughlyreformed by droit de suite. This right prevents the artist and their heirs seek for highassessment or high market value of his works in the short term.They just lose theincentive to obtain overvalued sum by market.Investors and collectors of Chinesepainting and calligraphy art auction also desperately need this right being recognized.Dueto artists "worth" pursuit,the auction market become abnormal.The evil result is illiquilityof art piece,and a several years’s illiquidity means artist and their heir have no gain.Inadequacies of this article: It is so difficult to collect private transactions data ofChinese calligraphy and painting art market,but private transactions flooding is still oneof the important reasons for the confusion and hardness to restrain of aution market.Dueto this difficulty from database, in this paper, the empirical analysis is impossible to be thourough or done at all.Experience has proved that the development of a national art market could not beaccomplished at one stroke, in similar reson, the development of Chinese calligraphy andpainting works of art will also be a very long process.How can we make it smoothly intothe advanced leve,how can we make it get access to he rest of the world, how can wepush it into sustainable development road, and howe can we design the complete systemfor provides institution to the creation, packaging, circulation, consumption of art piece isan urgent problem or task.Chinese painting and calligraphy have unique,splendidcivilization,but the market environment lies in low level. The gap problem need not onlythe researchers of art area,but the contemporary economists to join in.I hope this papercan play a some role to arise the pondering.