Research On Some Issues In Emergency Plan Management

The development of contingency plans in advance is the most important part of emergency response. Nowadays, our country and local governments, even some key industries have prepared several kinds of emergency plans for specific events, but there are still many drawbacks to impede enhancing emergency management capabilities, such as developed emergency plans for a single event cannot cope with the requirements of complex emergencies concurrent or secondary case; the text plans contained complex information but with poor operability; lack of recommendations in executing state decision of plan and processes; lack of targeted measures for improving the plans. Therefore, the traditional ways of preparing and improving emergency plans by manual works are apparently unable to meet the actual needs of the emergency response which requires quick and dynamic response. Meanwhile, as the level of informatization upgrading, computer and information technology has gradually matured in governments and key industries, and its emergency management information acquisition, information transmission and information processing are gradually made to try and have a certain amount of accumulation. This dissertation researched on several important issues in emergency plan management, based on the analysis of realistic and theoretical background, three main issues were refined from the lifecycle management of emergency plan as:how to generate the plan before emergency happened, how to adjust the plan while the emergency requirement changing, and afterwards how to improve the plan. Starting for the first issue, this dissertation studied two kinds of emergency plan reconstruction:the emergency procedures reconstruction without resource constraints in chapter3and the emergency plan reconstruction with resource constraints in chapter4; in chapter5, the second issue were discussed for executing state optimization of plans and processes, which provides a basis to respond to the changing needs of the plan implementation process; for the third issue, chapter6explored a feasible way for the discovery and improve the weak link in the plan which based on the executing and drilling data. The main issues and conclusions of this dissertation are as follows:(1) Due to the complexity of emergencies evolution, emergency management always faces the complicated situation that many kinds of events outbreak in a short interval, the manual preparation and plan for a single event have already been unable to meet the realistic needs of emergency response, which needs a way to on-line reconstruct plans based on several single plans. This issue of the difficulty lies in how to deal with the problem of measures that may started when more than one plan need at the same time, which may lead to a repeat or fuzzy logical relationship, other more, the traditional text-based expression of emergency plan need to be transferred into the form that computer can recognize and easily compute. In Chapter3, the emergency procedures were expressed as directed graph and adjacency matrix, the main problems and difficulties in reconstructing multiple emergency procedures of concurrent or secondary emergencies were discussed. Then we presented a reconstruction algorithm to achieve on line reconstruction of concurrent or secondary emergency procedures. An example of civil airline was given to illustrate the implementing steps of this algorithm. The reconstruction results showed that the emergency procedures reconstruction can provide a real-time and efficient decision support for emergency disposal without resource constraints.(2) From the preparation and use condition of emergency plan, currently, most emergency procedures are based on the experience of specific types of emergency, which provide basic decision support for emergency managers. However, with the limitation of resources, the operation always faces obstacles in industry field. Because of the complexity and uncertainty of emergency, the type and quantity of resources are always limited in a certain time window, in the beginning of emergency, according to the characteristics of the event and resource status information, through the reconstruction on the basis of a new emergency process, the specific process level of resource scheduling in the reconstruction process should be considered. On the basis of the expression by the introduction of the preplan’s network plan in Chapter3of this dissertation, it’s added to resource types, quantity, and completion time constraints in Chapter4, and study the many types of emergencies concurrent or secondary contingency plans for resource scheduling program generated by computer on-line reconstruction under the limitation of total resources by enhancing the efficiency of the disposal of emergency management and disposal effects. On the basis of the description in steps, objectives and considerations of the development in resource scheduling scheme, it constructed the models both in parallel and mutually exclusive scenarios, designed a heuristic algorithm, using the contingency plans for reconstruct on of the sample through an airline.(3) In order to meet the needs of the occurrence that may arise in emergency, the emergency plan usually has specific disposal goal and the applicable conditions. With the indeterminacy of occurrence and the evolution of emergency, the overall plan or part of the process may no longer apply in the implementation process, so it’s significant to close those plans are no longer applicable. In Chapter5, the dissertation research on optimization problems from preplan and processes, these two levels, solved the problem in choosing of the plan or process state in particular moment in time, providing decision support based on real-time information to adjust for emergency contingency plans and the implementation of the process state.(4) Besides the overall evaluation to improve the completeness, validity and other aspects of the plan content, The improvement of emergency plans needs micro-operational level evaluation of specific processes to eliminate the weak parts of the plan. There are a lot of processes whose main work are information passing or processing in emergency plan procedures, especially in the procedures of resource preparation stage, the quality of the transmission of information between these processes decides the final efficiency of plan execution, the number of different specific types of process output errors reflects the relatively weakness of the process in the whole network. From the perspective of risk analysis to analyze the plans based on the implementation and drilling data, to describe and compare the output error level would be helpful to found and improve the weak parts of the plan. Chpter6presented a risk assessment model based on flow equilibrium of error information, which explored a quantitative description and measurement of risk conduction.