| In recent years, there were many achievements in sports industry research. However, recent studies only focus on the statistics of the sports industry output. Thus, there are still gaps in the comprehensive quantitative evaluation of the sports industry development, and lack of overall grasp of its development. Secondly, recent studiesare mainly retrospective qualitative assessment, and lack of quantitative and dynamic methodto get a forward-looking. In order to achieve the double purpose of theoretical research and practical application, this paper constructedacomprehensiveindex system of sports industry developmentin China, quantitatively analyzedthe time series and dynamic prediction, geographic distribution and spatial patternofsports industrydevelopment, then summarized the influence factors of sports industrydevelopment. The main conclusions are as follows:1)The comprehensive index system of sports industrydevelopment was conducted based ondifferent methods, such as the summary of related literature, keywords screening, questionnaire survey and expert interview, to find the relationship among the industrial scale, industrial structure, industrial function, publicity and education, and talentsecurity. Based on different weight of each director, a development index could be gotten to assess the development of the sports industry.2) This paper calculated the development of Chinese sports industry from1998to2008. Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition method and nonlinear dynamic prediction models, thenonlinear dynamic prediction modelof Chinese sports industry development was made in this paper.3) Theannually increase rate of Chinese sports industry reached3.26%from1998to2008. Through the analysis of the opportunities and challenges of Chinese sports industry development in the future, the paper proposed three prediction scenarios called business-as-usual scenario, steady adjustment scenario and adjust-to-risk scenario, and the results showed that theannually increase rate ofsports industry would be2.78%,6.07%and-0.10%./This result showed that it need to solve four problems for sports industry development, including the demographic dividend decline, labor costs rise, imbalancestructureof sports goods industry, sports service industrydevelopment and how to draw social investment.4) The spatial pattern of current Chinese sports industrydevelopment is gradient development form east to west, and called "one axis and three points", with the eastern coastal zone as development axis, with the Bei jing-Tianjin region, he Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta economic circle asdevelopment points. In2008, the development index of sports industry of Jiangsu, Beijing, Guangdong and Shanghai were bigger than3, and the index of Qinghai was less than1.5. The gap of regional sports industry development gradually increased after2004.5) Temporal and spatial pattern analysis showed a positive role of regional economic development to promote the development of the sports industry, but the driving force of economic growth in recent years gradually weakened. The three scenario analysis showed that, the demographic transition, the wage structure, industrial structure and investment structure has become an important role to affectdevelopment strategy of China’s sports industry, sports consumption patterns, gradient transfer of industries and the sports industry structure. Spatial pattern analysis showed that the unbalanced distribution of resources and economic factors, including capital, labor, technology, environment and production scale, affecting the development of regional sports industry. |
PDF Full Text Request