A Study On Comprehensive Assessment,Analysis Of Spatial Characteristics And Scenario Simulation Of Residents’ Well-being In Poyang Lake Area From The Perspective Of Capital

The well-being of the people is the fundamental goal of development.Human capital,economic capital,social capital and natural capital are important factors in determining the level of residents’ well-being.There are important research significance that quantitative assessment of the residents’ well-being based on the perspective of capital and simulation analysis of development trend in Poyang Lake area.This dissertation constructs the index system of the residents’ well-being in Poyang Lake area based on the capital framework,and applies a set pair analysis method to comprehensively evaluate the level of residents’ well-being in 38 districts and counties in Poyang Lake area from 2006 to 2015.The Gini coefficient,Theil index,spatial autocorrelation and other methods were used to reveal the spatial distribution and agglomeration characteristics of residents’ well-being in Poyang Lake area.Constructing SD model of the residents’ well-being system in Poyang Lake area by system dynamics,and carrying out scenario simulation and trend forecasting on the changing trend of residents’ well-being of Poyang Lake area under different scenarios,the study found:(1)From 2006 to 2015,the level of residents’ well-being in Poyang Lake area improved steadily,the gap between the districts and counties was significantly reduced,and low well-being districts and counties was improving faster and showed obvious advantages.Increasing the residents’ well-being that the districts and counties with low well-being was the key to promote the balanced development of residents’ well-being in Poyang Lake area.(2)The residents’ well-being of Poyang Lake area shows obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics.Xihu District,Donghu District,Qingyunpu District,Qingshan Lake District and Nanchang County in Nanchang City are the high-high level areas for the residents’ well-being in Poyang Lake area;Yongxiu County,De’an County,Duchang County,Hukou County,Pengze County,Lushan City and Gongqing City in Jiujiang City,and Poyang County,Yugan County in Shangrao City are low-low level areas,and the number of low-low level areas is continuously decreasing.(3)Through the scenario simulation by the SD model about the residents’ wellbeing in Poyang Lake area,we found that: Under the original scheme,the level of residents’ well-being about Poyang Lake area was 0.6898 in 2016 and 0.8331 by 2030.The level of residents’ well-being about Poyang Lake area in 2030 under the four scenarios was 0.8489,0.8450,0.8461,and 0.8473.The residents’ well-being of Poyang Lake area will still have more room for improvement.(4)Economic capital,social capital,natural capital and human capital work together to achieve the highest level of residents’ well-being among Poyang Lake area.The coordinated improvement plan of economic capital,social capital,human capital,and natural capital is the optimal solution for the long-term healthy development of residents’ well-being in Poyang Lake area.Promoting the synergistic growth of economic capital,human capital,natural capital and social capital is a good way to sustainably improve the system of residents’ well-being in Poyang Lake area.