The Study On Repurchase Pricing Of BT Project In Urban Rail Traffic From The Risk-Sharing Perspective

BT mode is a financing mode for construction project in which the BT organizer carries out financing, construction and transfer, and then the BT host repurchases the project and pays for it. At present, there are many disputes on the repurchase pricing for BT project in urban rail traffic. The substance of the dispute is that the two parties of BT project in urban rail traffic cannot make agreement on the adjustment right over the repurchase price and reckon that the risk beard could not reflected from the repurchase price. Based on the perspective of risk-sharing, proposed framework for quantitative research qualitative increase, the study works over the repurchase pricing for BT project in urban rail traffic which resolves the problems in it.Nowadays, in the study of the adjustment of repurchase base price for BT project, many scholars discuss about the main factors that influence the repurchase pricing; however, they only give simple introduction of some specific influence factors. The study on return on investment is mainly qualitative research, lacking quantitative research in the return on investment that accords to the risk borne by the BT organizer. Based on the perspective of risk-sharing, the paper carries out systematic study on the risk factors that influence the repurchase pricing for BT project in urban rail traffic. It utilizes Work Breakdown Structure method, Delphi method and cause and effect diagram in risk analysis theory to identify the risk factors that influence the repurchase pricing for BT project in urban rail traffic; adopts questionnaire, comprehensive evaluation method and cluster analysis to analyze the key risk factors that influence the repurchase pricing for BT project in urban rail traffic. After establishing the theory mode for risk sharing and the frame for allocation of risk in BT project in urban rail traffic, with its guidance and "Efficiency first" as a criterion, the paper distributes the risk to the key risk factors and arrives to the matrix for risk allocation. Corresponding to the risk factors that BT host bears, the paper analyzes the influence mechanism of 7 key risk factors affecting on repurchase base price, establishes the mode for adjustment of the repurchase base price for BT project in urban rail traffic and prove the mechanism and factors that influence the repurchase price with cases. Corresponding to the risk factors that BT host bears, the paper analyzes the influence mechanism of 9 risk factors the BT host bears affecting on the return on investment. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation VaR (Value at Risk) model and 9 risk factors the BT host bears affecting on the return on investment, the paper establishes quantitative mode for return on investment in BT project in urban rail traffic. The risk cost in the project can be calculated simulatively with measurement mode for risk benefit in BT project in urban rail traffic and this can resolve further the issues of return on investment in the repurchase pricing in BT project in urban rail traffic. Lastly, analyze the BT project-No.5 subway in Shenzhen. In the case, the paper analyzes the share of key risks, the adjustment of base repurchase price and return on investment in detail.