Research On Association And Coordinated Development Between Real Estate And National Economy In China

Since China implemented its reform and opening up policies, the sustained and rapid development of China’s real estate is an important economic phenomenon of contemporary Chinese economy. As an important part of the national economy, the real estate industry is becoming wind vane and barometer of our national economy, and it has a very important position and role in the entire national economic system. Generally speaking, we must enhance understanding of the status of the basic and pillar industries for the real estate industry in the national economic system. As a new economic growth point, the real estate played a positive role in stimulating national economic growth and expanding employment. And the sustained growth of disposable income and rapid urbanization has provided a broad space for the development of China’s real estate industry.The complex mechanism of interaction between real estate and the national economic system make the real estate market regulation and management of government departments is complex system engineering. Therefore, clarifying the complex economic relationship issues between the real estate industry and the national economy, and promoting coordinated and healthy development between the real estate industry and the national economy is an important research topic. This paper from the perspective of industry location, development level, the scale of development and the real estate price adjustment explore the coordinated development relationship between national economy and the real estate, witch on the improvement of industrial structure, promoting the urbanization, and optimize real estate macro control, building a harmonious society and improve people’s living standards and promote the coordination of real estate and healthy development of the national economy has important theoretical and practical significance. Based on the experience of foreign real estate development, this study explores China’s real estate development stage and development level. Based on comparative analysis of domestic and international real estate industry, we explore the relation between China real estate and other industries of national economy and analyze the real estate industry position in the national economy. From the empirical analysis of the interaction between the real estate investment and economic growth we explore the development scale and pace of the real estate industry. Based on computable general equilibrium model we explore the real estate price fluctuations impact on the national economy. Finally, the conclusions of earlier studies coordinated development of national economy, given the real estate industry and policy recommendations.In this paper, we adopted various research methods, such as theoretical simulation and practice, survey data combined with empirical evidence, quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, logical argument and empirical research, from multi-dimensional to study the coordinated development relationship between the real estate industry and national economy. The research method and possible innovations can be summarized as the following points:First, from the international perspective, we analyzed domestic and international statistical definition of the real estate industry, development environment and development status and other differences, so that we can get more clearly knowledge and understanding of characteristics of the real estate industry and the future development direction. Second, from the time dynamic and international comparative perspective, we analyzed the real estate industry associations. Based on research work made by pioneers, we adopted input and output data, such as focused on the use of 1997,2002 and 2007 input-output tables in the database and OECD statistics, and applied international common input-output model to study real estate economy. Again, we adopted theoretical analysis combined with empirical evidence, from the macro-and micro-economic unit (family) perspective, on the basis of the experience of OECD countries real estate development, to analyze the development relationship between real estate and national economy. Fourth, we adopted quantitative analysis method from the perspective of national, regional and city, to examine the dynamic relationship between the real estate investment and economic growth. First, from the perspective of national level we constructed variable parameter model between the real estate investment and GDP. Secondly, from the regional level, we adopted provincial Panel data of Real Estate Investment and GDP to construct a Panel data model. Finally, from the city level, we adopted 35 cities’ panel data to construct economic growth econometric models, real estate investment econometric model and real estate loans econometric model. Fifth, based on the standard CGE model developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute in 2002, we constructed the computable general equilibrium model of real estate prices adjustment impact on the national economy.This study found that, first of all, from the overall point of view China’s real estate industry is still in the early stage of development, but some local area real estate industry had entered a stage of over-development. And from the overall point of view real estate price has a positive correlation with the disposable incomes. Secondly, compared with the real estate of United States, Japan and Britain, the type of industry is closely backward and forward related to China’s real estate industry is still emphasis on material type and traditional industries, and the driving effect of China’s real estate industry on other industries is strong. Again, real estate investment contribution to the growth of the national economy is obvious; the impact of real estate investment on the GDP is increasing year by year. If you give real estate investment a positive shock, it will bring the same impact on national economy for about 7-8 years, namely, real estate development and investment investment effectively promoted economic long-term growth. In the case of other conditions remain unchanged; giving the economy a positive external shock, the real estate industry will be brought to the impact for about 3 years. Interest rate impact on real estate investment is long and big early. The relationship between real estate investment and economic growth is obvious regional differences. The impact of Real estate Investment on economic growth is less than the impact of economic growth on real estate investment, namely, the interaction between real estate investment and economic growth is asymmetric; the impact of real estate investment on economic growth is greater than the impact of the real estate credit, but the impact of economic growth on the real estate credit is greater than the impact on real estate investments; the relationship between economic growth and real estate credit is non-symmetric, namely, the impact of economic growth on the real estate credit is greater than the impact of the real estate credit on economic growth. Thus, relatively rapid economic growth will drive the rapid expansion of real estate credit, but the economic decline may lead to a serious shrink of real estate credit; the impact of real estate credit on real estate investment is greater than the impact of the economic growth on real estate investments and the impact of Real estate development loans on economic growth, whitch suggest that the real estate credit is critical to real estate investment; the impact of real estate prices on real estate credit is greater than the impact of interest economic growth and rates on real estate credit, and real estate price fluctuations impact on the credit scale was obvious. Finally, CGE model simulation results show that real estate prices increasing will promote investment increase and stimulate consumption and net exports rising, and effectively promote economic growth. As for the impact of real estate prices falling, all macroeconomic indicators will be adversely affected. Real estate prices increased business and government income, no metter real estate prices increasing and falling both the real income of rural residents and urban residents are adversely affected. The impact of real estate prices falling on macroeconomiy is greater than the impact of the impact of real estate prices same magnitude increasing. In addition, real estate prices increasing can promote all departments’total domestic output of growth; conversely, real estate prices falling will make total domestic output of all departments decline. And the impact of real estate prices falling on total domestic output of all departments is greater than the impact of the impact of real estate prices same magnitude increasing.In order to promote the healthy development of real estate industry, combined with research findings above, this article also gived some countermeasures about coordinated development between national economy and real estate:First, we shoud correctly handle the relations between departments and the national economy; second, we shoud standardize and improve the governance capacity of local governments; Third, we shoud improve real estate macro control system; Fourth, we shoud correctly understand the relationship between the housing market mechanisms and housing security.