Empirical Analysis Of Supply, Trade And Impact Factors On Oilseeds Industry In China Under Economic Globalization

China is one of the largest producers, consumers and importers of oilseeds in the world. Though rapid developing since1990s, China’s oilseed industry faces many problems. Due to low output, oilseeds production can not meet the people’s needs in quantity and quality. In recent years, more and more oilseeds and vegetable oil were imported into China, price connection between China’s market and international market is becoming more related, trade policies and trade behavior influence China’s oilseed industry more than ever.Therefore, the paper thoroughly analyses China main oilseeds production, trade, policies etc. Firstly, it briefly reviews the development history of China main oilseeds industry, and summarizes its main characteristics. Secondly, it analyses the influencing factors of the oilseeds production and the relationship between oilseeds and its competitive crops. Thirdly, it further analyses the soybean price linkage between domestic markets and foreign markets. Lastly, using GTAP model, it estimates the influence of international oil subsidy policies on China’s oilseed industry.The main conclusions are as follows.1) Peanut has the largest net profit of unit area, soybean has the second largest net profit of unit area, but rapeseed has the lowest net profit of unit area.2) Since2000, the production growth of soybean was mainly due to the increase of planting area, the production growth of rapeseed and peanut was mainly due to the improvement of yield.3) China’s soybean price and corn price has significant influences on China soybean planting area, if the rate of soybean price to corn price increases1%, the soybean planting acreage will increase0.189%in short-term,0.637%in long-term[China’s rapeseed price and wheat price changes have significant influences on China’s rapeseed planting acreage, if the rate of rapeseed price to wheat price increases1%, the rapeseed planting acreage will increase0.211%in short-term,0.641%in long-term; the rate of peanut price to wheat price has not significant influences on peanut planting acreage.4) Planting acerage is the most important factor to China main oilseeds production. The input of labor will still play a positive role on soybean and rapeseed production, but has no positive effects to peanut production growth. Fertilizer input elasticity to soybean and peanut was negative. Natural disasters has become an important restrict element to oilseed production. The development of science and technology made a larger contribution to China main oilseeds production.5) For a long time, the domestic market price of soybean was closely related to international market price, but in a short time, domestic soybean market price can’t timely response to international price fluctuation.6) Using GTAP model to analysis the impact of America oilseeds subsidy policy on China-America economy, the simulation results shows that the United States subsidies policies will lead to the United States oilseed exports to China rise29.5%, and China’s oilseed production fall3.561%and prices fall1.34%.From the above analysis, some suggestions to promote China’s oilseed industry development are put forward as follows.1) to enhance support to oilseeds plants;2) to improve the price coordination mechanism between oilseeds and grains;3) to increase oilseeds’capacity of disaster resistance;4) to enhance innovation and extension of science and technology;5) to develop China’s price functional system of oilseeds market;6) to develop early warning mechanism of industry injure, and to appeal USA’s soybean subsidy.