| How to objective measure tourism sustainable development condition effectively is oneof the important ways to practice sustainable theory.It is necessary to unify ecosystem andtourism economic system to quantitative analysis tourism ability of sustainable developmentin ec-economic system.First, background and significance of choosing issuewere given in thedissertation, and then, analyzed the technical route and overviewed the current researchingsituation of the two advanced sustainable evaluation method (tourism ecological footprintmethod and the emergy analysis method). It improved tourism ecological footprint model andbased on the theory of the emergy analysis, analyzed the tourism sustainable developmentlevel.Meanwhile, quantitatively analyzed tourism sustainable development of ec-economicsystem in Taian City. Specific content as follows:1. Improved TEFBased on the theory of the tourism ecological footprint, the dissertationr improved themodel of TEF, introduced the tourism ecological footprint index. It evaluate tourismsustainable development level quantitatively and analyze its trend from2001to2010in TaianCity，and also forecast the the tourism ecological footprint from various scenarios based onARIMA model. Combining tourism ecological income index and tourism ecological footprintindex, it quantitative evaluated tourism sustainable development level and trend in Taian Cityand forecast the TEC, TEFI, and TEF in the future. Through the time series of tourismecological footprint, using double screening stepwise regression analysis method to determinethe main influencing factors of tourism ecological footprint.It also used ARIMA model tovarious scenarios forecast. The results indicate that:(1) improved tourism ecologicalfootprint considered the ecological footprint of tourism operators, including four pointsfootprint: tourism ecological footprint of accommodation, tourism ecological footprint of food,tourism ecological footprint of traffic and the tourism ecological footprint of shoppingt.(2) TEF is growing rapidly in Taian City, and up to540294.27hm~2in2010, Increased by8.2times more than2001. Tourism ecological footprint index reduced year by year and it upto-1.83in2010. The sustainable development level change from “sustainable development” in2001to “heavy unsustainable development” in2010.(3) According to the time sequence ofAIRMA model analysis, under the forecast premise of the tourism ecological footprint indexand the tourism ecological capacity,the TEF will have9predictions in2015:395192.97hm~2,379757.7hm~2,372578.2hm~2,787029.8hm~2,756290.3hm~2,741992.3hm~2,614257hm~2,590265.6hm~2,579106.4hm~2.2. Tourism emergy analysisBased on the theory of the emergy analysis, the dissertation analyzed the tourismsustainable development level. From the regional ec-economic system,it discussed theconcept, measurement basis and calculation method of tourism emergy from income (Emti)，tourism emergy from tourist consume(Emto),tourism emergy yield ratio(TEYR)，tourismEmergy sustainable indices(TESI),and quantitatively analyze tourism sustainabledevelopment of ec-economic system in Taian City from2001-2010. Using stepwiseregression method, it analyzed tourism sustainable development driving factors, and usedAIRMA model to forecast the next five years development level of driving factors. It usedCAR model to multi-scenes prediction of tourism sustainable development level from2011to2015. The results indicate that:(1) tourism emergy from income(Emti) of ec-economic systemin Taian was828.831019sej, the tourism emergy from tourist consume(Emto) was about834.961019se.The TEYR declined gradually, tourism emergy wealth began to negativeaccumulation in2010. And compared ec-economic system of EYR, TEYR always lower thanEYR, it show that the economic benefits of tourism is lower than the ecological economicsystemwhile tourism emergy yield ratio(TEYR) was0.99.(2) Tourism was sustainabledevelopment, in2001and2002and it was " unsustainable "state from~2003to2005.it has been“heavy unsustainable development" state from2006to2010,because TESI has beenfrom0.74to0.85.(3) Based on stepwise regression analysis model, the driving factors oftourism sustainable development is tourist income， tourism residence time， touristconsumption coefficient and tourist.（4）Based on AIRMA model of time series, the touristincome will be4.3670909billion yuan, tourist consumption coefficient will be4.37, tourismresidence time will be2.30days, and ELR will be2.13.（5）The CAR model of TEYR is:Y(t)=0.0000178X(1,t-1)+2.4948321X(2,t)-1.3137148X(2,t-1)-1.6262495X(4,t)+0.7270254X(4,t-1). 3. Image Designing and market positioningAccording to evaluation results of two methods, the dissertation put forward somecountermeasures and suggestions.It also gave image designing and market positioning oftourism in Taian City. |
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