Risk Managemnet Of Logistics Park Constructon Project

Logistics park construction is a high risk activity for its large investment, long payback period, influenced by many factors. It will result in a great loss that are difficult to restore in a wide range and in a long time to enterprise and society once failure decision. Therefore, it is of great practical significance and strategic significance that carry out the study on the risk management of logistics park construction project to change the way of project management from traditional post-emergency management to risk management in advance.In this dissertation, the author chooses logistics park construction projects planned by transport sector as the research objects, studies thoroughly and systematically on its issues of risk identification, risk assessment and risk control. The major achievements and innovation of this dissertation can be summarized as follows:(1) The dissertation identifies risks of logistics park construction projects from the perspective of a third party using HHM-WBS (hierarchical holographic modeling and work breakdown structure) method, constructs risk assessment index system that is made up of technical risk, financial and economic risks, organization and management risk, market risk, social law (rules) risks, natural and environmental risks six categories consisting of40risk factors which are more common in logistics park construction projects. The dissertation proposes risk measuring method of logistics park construction project based on interval set-valued statistical theory for the characteristics of uncertainty, ambiguity, and difficult to accurately quantify to risk factors, and proposes the method of weight deciding by combining with interval deviation degree and entropy to every indicator with subjective and objective information.(2) The dissertation establishes risk assessment model of logistics park construction project based on fuzzy matter-element using the principle of matter-element analysis, combined with the concept of proximity. With the established risk assessment system, combined with the actual specific logistics park construction project, the dissertation empirically analyses and evaluates the project risks on the logistics park construction to verify the validity and applicability of the risk assessment model.(3) Based on the principle of reliability theory, the dissertation builds up a risk control model for logistics park construction projects, and sets up a reliability allocation model which can improve the overall reliability of the logistics park construction projects and use the limited resources effectively to improve the efficiency of risk control. Calculating case shows that it only need change the less reliability of the subsystem, the whole reliability of the risk control system of the logistics park construction project can meet the requirement, which provides a basis for effectively controlling risk of logistics park construction project.(4) The dissertation finds out hierarchical relations between the various risk factors through analyzing risk factors of logistics park construction project by means of interpretative structural modeling (ISM) method, and establishes an ISM model on risk factors of the logistics park construction project, which reveals the mechanism of the risks arising, and proposes some measures to avoid and control risks in the logistics park construction project scientifically on the basic of finding out main contradictions and fundamental contradiction in the construction of the logistics park project.(5) Based on game theory and using government and enterprise as participators, the dissertation finds out mixed Nash equilibrium probability both in government intervention and in enterprise speculation, which can increase enterprise’s enthusiasm to invest in the construction of logistics park project and avoid their speculation that might bring huge social risks, and proposes some policy recommendations to control risks.This dissertation, which adopts the study methods of qualitative analysis combined with quantitative analysis and mathematical modeling combined with empirical analysis, and discusses risk identification, risk assessment, risk control and other issues on logistics park construction project, will have some theoretical guidance and practical reference value in enriching and improving risk control theory of logistics park construction project, and in guiding the scientific management to construction of logistics park project, and in promoting the healthy development of logistics park in China.