Research On Early-warning Of Financial Ecological Crisis In China

The problems with financial ecology are heatedly discussed in the economicfield while the research on early warning of financial ecological crisis in China is abrand new topic. Frequent outbreaks of financial crisis in many countries recently,their demino effects and the high risk of finance itself make the finance morefragile. The root cause of financial crisis is the imbalance of financial ecologicalsystem. Once it occurs, the national economic security will be endangered. Thefinancial risks in China became more and more obvious in the mid1990s. Thedissertation, grounded on the sustainable development and the national security,gives a deep insight into the financial ecological crisis and makes a systematicresearch on its early warning to make finance play a fully initiative role ineconomy and ensure the national economy security by taking preventive measures.By combing numerous literatures at home and abroad, the dissertationexpounds systematically the relevant theories of early warning of financialecological crisis. At the same time, it studies the formation mechanism of financialecological crisis by means of setting up models from the perspectives of the mainbody crisis of financial ecology, the crisis of financial ecological environment andthe dynamic imbalance between them. With the theories of early warning, their methods and various mathematical models, four pressure indexes are innovativelyestablished: banking crisis, money market crisis, stock market crisis and macroeconomic crisis. Through combined pressure indexes and Granger cause-effecttesting method,15early warning indexes are selected which cover4subsystems ofabove mentioned crisis. Based mainly on ARIMA model, such early warningmodels as banking crisis, money market crisis, stock market crisis, macroeconomic crisis and financial ecological crisis are creatively built up and tested. Byusing K-means clustering method, the warning lines of early warning of financialecological crisis in China are defined, and meanwhile the intervals of warningdegrees are divided. The empirical analysis results of early warning of financialecological crisis in China in2011indicate that the early warning model of financialecological crisis set up by the author can reflect the risk situation of China’sfinancial ecology and its pre-warning results are also in accord with the reality ofChina. At last, some policies and suggestions are put forward accordingly toimprove financial ecological environment, reduce the main body risk of financialecology and strengthen the collaborative management of early warning.