Study On The Group Decision Making Of Power Grid Emergency Management From The Perspective Of Coalition Between Govement&Enterprise

Owning to connecting with the social stability and economic development? grid security is a world-wide issue, which is highly attached importance to by all the governments as well as electric power enterprises. With the rapid growth of China's electricity demand, China's electric power system has developed to the largest AC and DC mixed power system with the highest voltage level in the world. Once it encounters any kinds of emergencies(including attack, natural disaster or man-made destruction, etc.), the impact will likely lead to serious incident of power failure even power systemcollapsing, which will dodamage to national economy, to people's livesand even to national security. In order to improve the reliability of the electric power system, building a modern grid emergencymanagement system, carrying out a scientific risk assessment under the crisis early warning and making preventive measuresbecome particularly important andwill have far-reaching theoretical significance and practical value.In the past years, a lot of researches on risk assessment and crisis management based on the traditional grid system stability analysis and technical countermeasures have been carried out. Meanwhile, new informational technology as a means of analysis has been introduced as the supplement to grid system security. However, various incidents of grid system crisis which occurred in recent years show that the system-safety-analysis methods simply focusing on technical aspects have been unable to meet the development requirements of the grid modernization. Modern grid crisis management not only needs to improve the various existing methods based on technical analysis, but also needs to establish a more comprehensive security risk assessment and emergency response system from a practical aspect, in particular, to establish a decision-making mechanism under the corresponding policy constraints with governments and electric power enterprises jointly participating. Therefore, from the perspective of combination of governments and enterprises, this article aims at the modern grid research on risk assessment and group decision-making system process. The core of grid emergency management is to establish a scientific and effective decision-making system. Based on its general theory, the paper tries to build a grid emergency management system of group decision-making from four aspects, decision-making body, object, methods and solutions. The main content and conclusions are as follows:1. The body of group decision-making for grid emergency management: governments and electric power enterprises under cooperative game. The body of traditional grid emergency management is technically dominated by power enterprises, while the body of group decision-making system constructed in the paper will be a coalition of governments and enterprises. From the perspective of basic public utilities and energy security, the paper analyzes the necessity of the coalition between governments and electric power enterprises. On this basis, the paper constructs a theoretical model of the game between governments and enterprises, particularly analyzes the differences between governments and enterprises grid risk management, and proposes the resolutions and suggestions on how to achieve game equilibrium. Based on in-depth deficiencies analysis of the existing grid system security risk management system, the paper constructs a new system of risk management and crisis cooperation between governments and enterprises, and analyzes the advantages of the new system compared with the existing system.2The object of group decision-making for grid emergency management:the source of grid system crisis andthe risk indicators. The analysis on the source of grid system crisis and the risk indicator evaluation are critical and directly oriented for grid emergency management decisions. On the one hand, considering the targets differencesbetween governments and enterprises in grid emergency management process, the paper combs and analyzes the source grid crisis, does a scientific classification, constructs precautionary principles of the coalition betweengovernments and enterprises based on analysis and introduces the corresponding early warning methods. On the other hand, from the perspectives of the indicator construction principles, the structural analysis of instructor system, quantification principles of indicators data and the source of indicators data, the paper systematically studies the indicator's system of grid security risk assessment under thecoalition between governments and enterprises.3. The methods of group decision-making for grid emergency management:risk assessment implementation and crisis warningapplication. Based on the specific methods of group decision making including evidence theory, AHP, rough set theory and etc, the paper achieves a joint assessment of the specific risks as well as the practical application of grid security crisis warning from the perspective of coalition between governments and enterprises. Firstly, the paper analyzes the requirements of graded scales for grid emergencies incidents and its impact, then constructs the grid emergencies grade evaluation model under the DS evidence theory. Secondly, the paper uses the traditional grid security risks AHP Evaluation Model to describe the evaluation steps and its calculation procedures. Finally, the paper analyzes the specific application under rough set theory in a grid failure warning.4. The solutions of group decision-making for grid emergency management: a precautionary design of coalition between governments and enterprises.The solution based on the grid emergency management ofcoalition between governments and enterprises is designed to reflect the specific program of group decision making. The paper, from the introduction on how to dispose of large area blackout, analyzes the construction of our country's grid precautionary framework and the condition of compiling system, then proposes a new thought fordealing with the emergency combined government with enterprises through comparing Sino-Us emergencies precautionary solutions in grid crisis.Based on the idea, the paper constructs a coalition solution from the crisis prevention, preparedness, response and application of reserves, and other aspects of the restoration.In addition, the paper takes the ice disaster recovery of grid as the specific model to be illustrated.Through the study above, the paper, from the four aspects----body, object, methods and solutions, has constructed a new grid emergencies management system under the group decision-making of coalition between governments and enterprises, which has a very positive guidance and reference for grid development to meet the requirements of the new era in order to build a modern grid emergency management system and to guarantee steady economic development and social stability. Surely, various parts under group decision-making system constructed in the paper still needs further refinement and validation of specific practices, which will be the focus of my future's research.