Research On China's Grain Production Demand And Net Import Forecast

Food not only provides an energy source for ordinary people to survive,but also provides an important foundation for a country's economic development.After joining the WTO,China has become increasingly close to the international market,and exchanges between the domestic grain market and the international grain market have also become more frequent.In the long run,after the full implementation of the "two-child policy",continued population growth over time has become an undeniable reality.The steady and healthy operation of China's economy and the growth of its population will bring unlimited possibilities for China's future increase in food demand.From the perspective of production,land,technology,capital and other factors related to food production are also changing.In the future,can China's food production meet the growing food demand,and will the gap between production and demand gradually widen? Whether it needs to be compensated by means of food imports,and whether the scale of net imports will expand.Research on these issues will help to examine the future long-term trends of China's food supply and demand and the actual changes in food international trade,which will help to rationalize food production resources Allocation,to provide theoretical support for the introduction of relevant policies,is of great significance for ensuring China's future food security.This study combs the domestic and foreign literature on China's grain demand,supply,and food security.Based on the theory of factors of production in Western economics,the theory of supply and demand of commodities,the theory of demand levels,and the theory of factor endowments,this paper analyzes China's grain demand Factors and trends of production and output,using the relevant data in the FAO database and China Statistical Yearbook,through theoretical analysis and data preprocessing,to construct a food demand and production forecasting model,and carried out a general trend of China's food demand,output and imports in the future Fitting and forecasting,we finally conducted an in-depth analysis of the reasons for the increase in China's grain imports,the impact of imports on China's grain market and the impact of grain import concentration on grain security.First,build a forecast model of China's grain demand in the future.This paper draws on the single-factor model of grain demand forecasting,and extracts population factors and economic development factors as the important content that affects China's grain demand in the future based on theory and practice.First,build a Leslie model to predict China's population in the future to estimate the total population of China in the future,consider China's future economic restructuring,and set the level of economic development to a fixed value.After calculation,we can see that the future grain demand curve of our country will show an inverted "U" shape.It is expected that the peak demand will occur around 2034,and then the demand will fall back.In addition,China's grain consumption structure will be further upgraded in the future.Second,use the Cobb-Douglas production function to establish a grain output prediction model.According to theory and practice,we selected the sown area,yield per unit area,fertilizer use,agricultural financial investment,agricultural mechanization power,and the number of agricultural,forestry,animal husbandry and sideline fishery employees as influencing factors,and used the time series model to predict the future grain output in China.Studies have shown that China's grain output will further increase in the future.It is estimated that the grain output in 2020 will be 668.68 million tons,692.69 million tons in 2025,and 70.284 million tons in 2030.Third,forecast the total net grain imports of China in the future.According to the theory of supply and demand balance,the total domestic grain demand is equal to the total domestic grain output and foreign imports.Considering the export of grain in China,the difference between the available grain demand and grain output represents the total net grain imports.After calculation,the future imbalance of China's grain production and demand will lead to a further increase in net grain imports.By 2025,China's net food imports will reach 140.135 million tons,reaching a peak of 14.42949 million tons around 2030.According to the current status of grain imports and future expectations,this paper analyzes the reasons for the increase in China's grain imports from three aspects: the imbalance between production and demand,tariffs,and domestic and international grain prices,and the impact of imports on China's grain market and the impact of grain import concentration on grain security.The impact was analyzed in depth.Finally,the conclusion and policy recommendations of this article are drawn based on predictive analysis.In the future,China's grain demand will increase further,but there will be a peak in the total demand,and the demand curve will show an inverted "U" shape,and changes in factors such as financial input and output per unit area will promote the increase in grain output in China,which is caused by the gap between production and demand.In the future,China's net food imports will rise and peak around 2030.Therefore,it is necessary for the government to regulate the total demand and supply of grain in China from three aspects: managing grain demand,continuously improving grain production capacity and strengthening macro-control,to ensure grain security in China.