Input-Output Accounting Matrices For China: Construction And Applications

Since input-output theory has been proposed by Leontief in1936, it has become a classicalanalysis method widely used in economic analysis, and through the research and exploration ofmany countries in the world in practice for many years, it gets the continuous improvement anddevelopment. Compared with the economic accounts, input-output model provides a very detailedproduct department and the industry structure, so as to facilitate more detailed analysis, and widelyused in economic forecasting, policy simulation, economic planning, the application of theinput-output technology range from the original economic field to expand to many areas ofpopulation, labor, resource, environment and so on, it has become a powerful tool for the analysisof economic relations among departments.Input-Output Accounting Matrix is a special form of input-output tables, is a component ofSocial Accounting Matrix (SAM), its structure is consistent with supply and use table, embodyingthe middle flow matrix, output matrix, finally use matrix and the added value matrix. In essence,Input-Output Accounting Matrix is the form of matrix of economic accounts, composed of productaccounts, industry sector accounts and added value account. For economic accounts, it onlycontains economic integrated indicator, while production activities and products can be divided soas to make analysis more detailed. Input-output analysis derivate from input-output accounting is amore harmonious economic quantity analysis method linking economic theory with mathematicalmethod. Input-Output Accounting Matrix puts "input" and "output" together, in the global market;there are much more competition, the interdependent production relations, the deepening divisionof labor, and more complex and diverse products, therefore intermediate exchange becomes moreand more important. In recent years, various methods of economic analysis based on input-outputtables are also increasingly rich, such as the multiplier analysis, linear programming analysis, anddynamic input-output model and so on. Throughout the research at home and abroad, domesticresearch on input-output is rich to some extent, but the gap of current research between domesticand foreign still exists.In view of this, this thesis mainly research Input-Output Accounting Matrix of China from thethree aspects of continuous annual Input-Output Accounting Matrix compilation, extension table compilation, and input-output models, based on reviewing a large number of the domestic andforeign research on input-output technology. The main idea is:1、adjusting the "Products byProducts" tables announced by National Bureau of Statistics of China to the form of "Products byIndustries ", and further adjusting "Products by Industries " tables to GDP accounting caliber.2、Based on publicly available data from various sources, adjusting items unbalanced through themethod of linking, including "RAS method","modified RAS method","fixed ratio method","variable ratio method" and " equilibrium itemized method", then we compile continuousInput-Output Accounting Matrix sequence tables of China from the year1992to2007.3、Based onthe continuous Input-Output Accounting Matrix sequence tables, this thesis compile extend tablesfrom the year2008to2011using the method of “Econometric model”, and compile “Industries byIndustries” tables using “U.V. tables method” proposed by United Nations.4、 Based onInput-Output Accounting Matrix and “Industries by Industries” tables compiled in the previoussection, the thesis analyzes present situation and trend of economic development of China,applying the methods including fundamental analysis, multiplier analysis, dynamic analysis and soon.The first chapter of this thesis introduces the current, mature Input-Output Accounting andMatrix related theoretical system in detail, including the Input-Output Accounting concept,background, Input-Output Accounting Matrix concept, principles, characteristics, finally alsointroduces the background, content, research methods, innovation and emphasis of the thesis indetail.The second chapter is the literature review section, mainly introduces theoretical systemcurrent situation and development of compilation methods, update methods, and the applicationtechnology, it laid the foundation for research of this thesis.The third chapter focuses on the whole compilation idea and detailed compilation methods ofChina’s Input-Output Accounting Matrix. First, introduces specific table structure of China’sInput-Output Accounting Matrix, and according to the actual situation of input-output tablesannounced by National Bureau of Statistics of China, the chapter follows three-step process: thefirst step designs compilation method of Input-Output Accounting Matrix announced; the secondstep designs compilation method of Input-Output Accounting Matrix unpublished data in Year ofthe middle; and the third step designs the prediction model of Input-Output Accounting Matrix extended table, and on the basis of Input-Output Accounting Matrix, compiles “Industries byIndustries” tables using “U.V. tables method” proposed by United Nations. According to thecompilation method in the previous chapter, the fourth chapter compiles Input-Output AccountingMatrix and “Industries by Industries” tables including data from the year1992to2011.The fifth and sixth chapter uses the1992-2011years’ Chinese Input-Output AccountingMatrix and “Industries by Industries” tables for data base design, analysis China’s current economicsituation and trend based on the above analysis models. The first is the basic analysis, which is veryintuitive descriptive analysis of aggregate indicators and structure of Input-Output AccountingMatrix sequence tables. Followed by inter-sectoral flow relations analysis, calculates the directconsumption coefficient matrix, the initial input coefficient matrix and the distribution coefficientmatrix based on “Industries by Industries” tables. The third is static multiplier analysis, calculatesthe economic effects of final demand on the basis of Input-Output Accounting Matrix. Finally thesixth chapter designs and analyzes the dynamic input-output econometric model, then buildsdynamic input-output econometric model combined with the Input-Output Accounting Matrixsequence tables data and other necessary economic data, forecasts and plans the main economicindicators of the year2012-2015.The seventh chapter is a general summary according to the study contents of the thesis, andcombining with the Predecessors’ summary and shortcoming of this thesis, some future prospectson Chinese input-output research are made.