Study On The Requirements Analysis And Development Prediction Of The Creative Agriculture In Beijing

Creative agriculture, which effectively combines the creative industries and traditional production of agriculture, is strongly contributing to the transformation and upgrading of urban modern agriculture in Beijing. However, the development of creative agriculture in Beijing has been strictly constrained with the lack of fanning land. Meanwhile, the development of creative agriculture in Beijing performs the diversity and imbalance, which have been clearly addressed on either the model of regional development, or the type of the development.The main purpose of this study is to promote the development of creative agriculture in Beijing in a rapid and balanced development. Firstly, this study used literature-review methodology to analyze the necessarity and feasibility of creative agriculture in Beijing. Secondly, this study analyzed the consumer characteristics by interviewing the producers and consumers, giving out and collecting the questionnaires randomly, and analyzed the statistical result of the survey. In order to find out the major factors which impacting the consumption of creative agriculture in Beijing, this study chose the principal component analytical method and logistic regression method. In consideration of the high relationship of creative agriculture and the relevant industries, this study adopted the grey system theory and the grey correlation analysis. Eventually, this study predicted the development scale and development direction of the creative agriculture in Beijing in the next five years by analyzing the major influence factors. The findings are summarized below:(I) Urban families are the main consumer group of the creative agriculture in Beijing because they have more incomes and more consumption capability and the urban family members have better education background, higher cultural tasted. They expected more individual experience and present stronger demand on creative agriculture. The factors that drive demands vary from consumption price to the product features. This study indicates that different consumer is impacted by different influencing factors of selection and different demand factors of product features.(2) By analyzing the input-output of investment in different time stamp, this study claimed that agricultural sightseeing garden and ethnic tourism have closer relationship with the variance of tertiary industry productivity. The educational investment on creative agriculture related less. The study also claimed that the income of Facility creative agriculture are basically related to the changing of the new fixed assets in farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries. The investment of water conservancy, environment and public facility related less. The income of creative agriculture has the closest relationship between the variation of newly-increased fixed asset for the farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries, and the grey absolute correlation degree for the investment of water conservancy, environment and public facilities management industries.(3) The income of creative agriculture in Beijing will maintain the trend of rapid growth in the next five years. According to the scale, the gross income of creative agriculture in Beijing in2016will increase around102.22%compared to the one in2011. According to the development direction, the average growth of Facilities agricultural will increase20.33%in the next five years, which is less than the average growth of Gross income of creative agriculture in Beijing. The Facilities agricultural will take the most proportion of overall CJross income of Creative agriculture. The income of the Folk tourism is relatively rare though it presents the rapidest development which the annual average growth rate is around22.58%. As a result, folk tourism takes the less proportion of overall gross income of creative agriculture, which estimated taking12.03%share in2016.Regarding the research methods and contents, this study focuses not only on analyzing the influencing factors of selection for the different types and features, but also providing the valid suggestions for the product supply on the way of creative agriculture, the creative products and the services that helping supplier to understanding the consumers market. At the same time, utilizing the grey correlation analysis and grey prediction model to predict the different types of Creative agriculture, the study produced evidence for the government’s decision making, which will promote the development of creative agriculture in Beijing quickly and evenly in the further.