Research On Carbon Emission Effect Of Industrial Structure Adjustment In China

China is facing some deep-seated contradictions between development and environmentalprotection, and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is widely regarded as aneffective way to realize low-carbon development. The main goal of current study was to evaluate thecarbon emission effect of industrial structure adjustment in China. Firstly, the general situation of theindustrial structure evolution and carbon emission was analyzed; secondly, with the provincial paneldata from1997to2010, based on the extended STIRPAT Model and spatial panel data models, thecarbon emission effect of industrial structure adjustment in China was investigated empirically;thirdly, based on a kind of grey incidence model, it estimated and analyzed the relevance between theadjustment of industrial department structure and the carbon emission in our country; at last, based ona multi-objective optimization model of input-output, the multi-objective genetic algorithm ofNSGA-Ⅱwas used to calculate and analyze the carbon emission effect of the industry structure in thecondition of the assumptive optimization status. The conclusions are as follows:(1)On the whole, the evolution of industrial structure in our country and the provinces presents anupward trend of “three two one”, but the evolution speed and phase of the regional or provincialindustrial adjustment are different in some respects, and the most eastern provinces’ industrialstructure is at a higher than others’; at the same time, total carbon emissions in China remain at a highlevel, but the growth rate is falling back and the carbon emission intensity is dropping; there are someobvious regional differences, and the provinces with the faster growth of carbon emission are mostlyconcentrated in the eastern and western regions which have different industrial structure; so thecarbon emission effect of industrial structure adjustment would be restricted by resource endowment,factor inputs, technical level and so on.(2)There are spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity among the provincial carbon emission inChina, so their own strategy of energy conservation and emission reduction shouldn’t be separatedfrom the overall environment, and each area should strive to coordinate with its surrounding areas soas to build an industrial system with low carbon emission; at present, the industrial structureupgrading has some initial effect on carbon emission reduction, but it is constrained by the economiclaws and the current situation; the mechanization of agriculture development is speeding up, while theindustry is developing with the distinct characteristic of high energy consumption and seriouspollution, and their proportions both have the remarkable positive correlation with carbon emission; however, the proportion adjustment of other industries dosen’t have very obvious low carboneffection, and the potentiality of carbon emission reduction should be inspired more; because of thebasic position of agriculture, it is unrealistic to reduce the industrial scale greatly, the mechanizationof agriculture should be combined with the strategic adjustment of the industrial structure, and itslow-carbon development mode should be actively built; the industry sector is dominant in nationaleconomy, but its growth should be controlled properly; at the same time, it is necessary to expand theindustrial scale of wholesale and retail trades, and hotels and catering services; moreover, theenergy-saving technology’s innovative development and application, and the harmonious cooperationbetween technological progress and structural adjustment are very key too.(3)There’re some relevance and contradiction among carbon emission reduction, economicgrowth and job enlargement; under the premise of stable economic growth and employment level,industrial restructuring as a means of reducing carbon emissions in China will be still valid within acertain range, but the unchanged technical level and the industrialization stage at present could hinderthe low-carbon emission effect to some degree; for this, the high-tech industrires with low energyconsumption, low emission and high added value should be quickly developed and the the modernservice industry, belonging to the low-carbon tertiary industry, also need to be actively developed; inaddition, given its important role for economic development, the transportation, post and storageservices and the construction, belonging to the high-carbon industry, should be expanded at someextend.(4)Overall, there is a strong correlation between industrial structure and carbon emission in China,but how much various industries relate to the emission is not the same, and the differences result fromvarying industrial features, engineering levels of production and so on; the industries with very highcarbon productivity which are closely related with carbon emission should become the major object ofstructure adjustment; for example, the industry of smelting and pressing of metals, the mining industry,the industries of production and supply of electricity, gas and water, the chemical industry and alikereally need the appropriate scaling-back of production to upgrade the productive efficiency andenergy utilization rate; there is a kind of industries not only including some traditional light industriessuch as textile industry and manufacture of foods, beverages and tobacco, but also covering someadvanced manufacturing industries such as manufacture of communication equipment, computers andother electronic equipment, manufacture of measuring instruments and machinery for cultural activityand office work; the correlation degrees between these industries’ share of output value and carbonemission are all not very high and almost the same; however, they shouldn’t be expanded without limit and for low-carbon emission and economic growth, we should draw a clear distinction betweenthe primary and the secondary when the industrial restructuring, place extra emphasis on severalindustries, and determine the developing pace and mode reasonably.