The Research Of Environment Problems And The Analysis Of Carrying Capacity In The Coastal Sea Area Of Liaoning Province

The ocean, especially the nearshore areas, has become the key carrier and strategic space of sustainable development of economy and society for the coastal areas, which are the most densely populated and in which the economic activity is the most active. With the rapid development of economy and society of the coastal areas, ocean ecological system withstands the huge pressure. At the same time, the resources, ecology and environment carrying capacity of the nearshore areas in China are very limited, and thus human activities have seriously worsened the marine area ecological environment, which interfere the sustainable development of the coastal areas.This paper has performed related research on several typical issues involved in the process of exploiting the nearshore areas of Liaoning Province based on the comprehensive analysis of current situation and environmental influence of the exploitations and utilizations of the nearshore areas in Liaoning Province. The major contents and results of the research are as follows:(1)Seawater quality analysis, in fact, is a comprehensive concept of seawater quality condition, and is a complex and uncertain system where multifactor and multilevel couple,the index contents always show up as the obvious transition characteristic.This paper selects the nearshore areas of Jinzhou Bay as the typical marine area of the nearshore exploitation. Firstly, the paper introduced the spatial-temporal characteristics of water environment in Jinzhou Bay, and raised a new seawater quality evaluation model based on variable fuzzy set theory. With the changes of variable model parameters (a, p), this model combined the linear model with the non-linear one, and take the most stable level characteristic value as the final evaluation result of seawater environment which can accurately distinguish the differences of the seawater quality of the different sampling points, and then determined the water quality evaluation level, thus the seawater quality evaluation model based on variable fuzzy set theory is more accurate and reliable and is more appropriate for multi-index, multi-level and non-linear comprehensive evaluation of seawater environmental quality, compared with other similar models such as BP neural network, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, set pair analysis, etc.(2)Although it is very necessary to utilize the mathematical method to evaluate the seawater quality environment, the process of evaluation the seawater quality environment models is relatively complex. Therefore, this paper urged to demand GIS technology to execute the automation evaluation process and the display of evaluation result. This paper introduced variable fuzzy mathematical model into seawater quality evaluation. Relying on a GIS secondary development tool ArcEngine and in Visual C#2008development environment, this paper build a variable fuzzy evaluation system of seawater quality. By visiting geodatabase of seawater evaluation in SQL Server with ArcSDE and special development data interface, spatial distribution status of seawater quality can be displayed in a real-time and dynamic manner. Such system is introduced to execute the comprehensive evaluation of seawater quality in Jinzhou Bay. Therefore it provided a scientific basis for controlling environmental pollution and executing environmental planning.(3)Considering such issue that the amount of major pollution factors such as DIN, reactive phosphate, COD, Pb, Cd, Zn, and so on are high continuously, this paper established the estimation models of seawater environmental capacity by using the following two methods:one is based on GIS, which is executed by discretely interpolating pollutants and depth within the research area with geostatistical analysis interpolation model and parameter optimization model,this method is very simple and effective in the absence of actual data; another is executed by creating hydrodynamic-convection diffusion model with DHI MIKE model, by simulating the changes of the coast pollutant concentration when the tide rises and falls, by selecting the situation where the mixture of pollutants impacts the most when there is low tide as calculation condition of environment capacity, at the same time by using environmental background value of Bohai Sea as background concentration of pollutants of Jinzhou Bay, by simulating concentration response factor field of key pollutants considering the impact on environmental capacity for background concentration, and then by calculating and acquiring marine environmental capacity coupling sharing coefficient method with the most optimized linear planning method. Both methods are suitable for different occasions, which provided the scientific reference basis for the calculation of environmental capacity in environmental management information system such as monitoring marine environment, controlling pollution, etc.(4)According to the characteristics of marine resources and ecological environment as well as social relationships among human beings, considering social development, marine economic status, marine exploitation extent, marine resource endowment state, marine environment quality, and other factors, this paper established an evaluation index system of carrying capacity of ecology and environment of marine sources, created the calculating methods of marine resources and carrying capacity of ecology and environment of the coastal zone in Liaoning Province based on variable fuzzy set theory, evaluated the overall state of marine resources, ecology and environmental carrying capacity development of marine area of Liaoning Province, at the same time predicted the development trend of the coastal zone carrying capacity with system dynamics model, and finally raised the strategies and suggestions of resource and ecology sustainable development of the coastal zone of Liaoning Province.