Research On The Evaluation And Prediction About Ecological Civilization Construction Of Dianzhong Urban Agglomeration

With the advance of urbanization and industrialization, people increasingly rely on resources and the environment, resource consumption and pollution emissions have been expanding, increasingly serious environmental problems. For this reason, the report of18th National Congress of CPC clearly pointed out that put resource consumption, environmental damage and ecological benefits into economic and social development evaluation system, establish the target system, assessment methods, incentive mechanisms to reflect the requirement of ecological civilization. The Dianzhong urban agglomeration consists of Kunming, Qujing, Chuxiong and Yuxi City, is not only the most important and most dynamic region, but also the most concentrated area of resource consumption and environmental impact in Yunnan Province. Due to in the southwest frontier underdeveloped areas, special geographical environment, ecology location important, many ethnic minorities; the Dianzhong urban agglomeration is facing with the double pressure of economic development and ecological protection. Therefore, the region of empirical analysis has very important significance.Ecological civilization construction (ECC) rich in content, covering economic, social, resource, environmental and cultural aspects, but few researchers have conducted a systematic evaluation of it. The research about the development trend prediction and environmental effects of ECC is very few. Thus, this paper sorts out the concept, connotation and related theories about ECC; systematic evaluates and analyzes the ECC results of Dianzhong urban agglomeration from the level of development, system coordination, development performance and resource environmental effects; use GM (1,1) and trend extrapolation to predict its future trends; design several programs and scenario simulations to solve its resource and environmental constraints problems.First, design the evaluation system of ECC. The system is decomposed into six subsystems about economic development, social progress, resource conservation, pollution control, ecological environment and ecological culture; each subsystem consists of three representative indicators, and set the appropriate metrics.Second, construct the corresponding evaluation index model of ECC. establish the level of development index model of ECC with entropy method and AHP method; construct system coordination degree evaluation index model of ECC based on the "barrel effect theory" and "balance efficiency theory"; build performance evaluation index model of ECC by referring to resource and environment performance evaluation index model.Third, empirically research on Dianzhong urban agglomeration about the level of development, system coordination and performance of ECC with models. The results showed that:"Eleventh Five-Year" period, the level development and system coordination of ECC have been varying degrees of improvement, but still at a low stage of development. To2010, Kunming and Yuxi EEC in the "initial development","junior co-ordination","positive performance" stage; Qujing and Chuxiong ECC in the "slight backward","mild Imbalance","positive performance" stage. The development level index of cities ECC compared:Yuxi> Kunming> Chuxiong> Qujing; system coordinated index of cities ECC compared:Kunming> Yuxi> Qujing> Chuxiong; performance Index of cities ECC compared:Yuxi> Kunming> Chuxiong> Qujing>0(the national average).Fourth, predict the development trend of Dianzhong urban agglomeration ECC on the premise of without consideration of resource and environmental constraints, and analyze its effects on resource and environmental. The results showed that:the ECC development level index of Kunming, Qujing, Yuxi and Chuxiong will be1.036,0.707,0.921and0.788; the system coordination index will be0.651,0.690,0.649and0.579at2025. As the economic development growth rate much higher than the resource conservation and pollution control of Dianzhong urban agglomeration, resource demand and pollutant emissions will continue growing year by year. To2025, is expected that water and energy demand will grow90.40%and108.95%, wastewater and SO2emissions will increase57.40%and131.08%, industrial solid waste production will grow282.89%over2010. Fifth, regulate relevant indicators about ECC, four kinds of programs designed to improve the resources and environmental effects of Dianzhong urban agglomeration. Mainly through two ways to achieve regulation:First, to ensure resource conservation and pollution control current natural trend, by reducing the rate of economic growth, so that the total resource consumption and pollutant emission control in a certain range (such as Scenario1and Scenario2). Such methods need to control the rate of economic growth, eliminate backward industries, and prevent overcapacity. The second is to ensure the socio-economic growth rate remains unchanged, enhance resource conservation and pollution control intensity (such as Scenario3and Scenario4), this kind of way to adjust the industrial structure adjustment, increase the intensity of resource conservation and pollution reduction, etc.Finally, in order to promote the coordinated development of Dianzhong urban agglomeration ecological civilization construction, this paper put forward corresponding policy recommendations from "according to regional advantages, adjust the industrial structure; moderately develop urban, focus on urban quality; establish effective mechanism, enforce intensive conservation; controll environmental pollution, improve environmental quality; protect the ecological environment, develop ecological culture; ensure social justice, promote ecological democracy; strengthen regional coordination, promote harmonious development ".