Research On Early-warning System Of Unemployment Of College Graduates

With higher education massification and college enrollment expansion, the increasing of collegestudents’ number has increased rapidly, but some college students can not find job on time, whichcaused concerns of the society. Correctly understanding of unemployment of college graduates areimportant to healthy development of Chinese higher education, sustainable development of Chineseeconomy, harmony and stability of society. Therefore, based on analysis of the background, type,impact factors of graduates’ unemployment, this study estimated unemployment rate of graduates bybuilding an early warning system, so to provide scientific reference to forecasted the trends ofunemployment of graduates and make relevant suggestions on economic, employment, highereducation. The main work and conclusions of this study are as follows:Based on theory and analysis methods of system science and economic early-warning, the studyestablished logic frame of judging the degree of warning, identifying impact factors, monitoringrelated index and dismissing alerts. Then the study made specific analysis on system elements,environment and coupling way of signs and indicators to achieve the functions of forecasting, warningand alarm dismissing. On this basis, the study constructed its theoretic model which is composed bydata information system, analysis and evaluation system as well as policy implementation supportedby organizational mechanisms, monitoring mechanisms and policy decision-making mechanisms.Then the study discussed and designed working flow, general framework structure and functions ofthe core information system of unemployment eraly-warining system of college graduates. Comparedwith studies of portable or rough ideal of the system, the study completed the whole theoretical modelbased on systematic and comprehensive analyzing, which advanced research progress and laid thefoundation for practical application.On the basis of review of enroll and employment policy of our country’s higher education, thestudy made comprehensive analysis on current employment situation of college graduates withemployment rate, salary, major relevant, employment areas and industries, costs and time ofjob-hunting and so on, which shows that it’s difficult for college graduates to find a job. At the sametime, the study found that the existing indicators are of non-standard definition and the statisticalmethods are not imperfect too, which constrained to make scientific assessment on unemploymentsituation of college graduates. Then, the study re-defined concept of unemployed of college graduates,and build a combination of quantity and quality indicators index system, not only improve the contentof college graduates unemployment warning system, but also contributed to improve the assessment of employment of college graduates.Based on view of unemployment theories of labor economics, human capital theory and highereducation, the study constructed college graduates employment system from the macro and microperspective, made deep analysis on the types and influencing factors of which, so to expand universityperspective of the graduate unemployment problem. It proves the reasons of economic development,employment opportunities, development of higher education and institutional obstacle lead tomacro-structural unemployment and graduates personal factors lead to micro-selective unemployment.On this basis, the study turned the macroeconomic impact factors to specific quantitative indicators inorder to establish warning monitoring index system of unemployment of the college graduate. It madefurther analysis to clarify the mechanism and impact of various factors indicators of theunemployment of college graduates by using the time difference analysis of various indicators ofcollege graduates, which laid the foundation for the further analysis of early warning. It put forwardthat total huge population led to China’s employment problem will exist for a long time; slowlyupgraded and unreasonable of industrial structure is root cause of poor absorb ability of college’semployment; the expansion of higher education and unexpected quality of college graduates underslowdown in growth of economic development is the key induced reasons. The study providedscientific basis for the types and causes of college graduates’ unemployment by system analysis andcombination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, so to expand the scope of research of collegegraduates’ unemployment.During the empirical process of system’s forecasting function’s achieving, the study focused on theuse of variety of quantitative methods to make exploration, so to analysis, compare and judge itsdifference and applicability. The results showed that the three models-ARIMA model for traditionaltime series econometric forecast, the gray system model adapted to less data and poor information, theartificial neural network of strong function of learning but lower requirements for data，which all canbe applied to forecast unemployment rate of graduates, but ARIMA model and the gray system modelwere not as good as the artificial neural network on predication accuracy, process fitting accuracy andthe breadth of model’s application. So under current complicated employment situations of ourcountry’s college graduates, the artificial nurture network model is the appropriate method choosing.The study provided new ideas and practical experience to make estimation of college graduates’unemployment trends under current situation with short time serious but unstable data.When explore to disseminate alerts of unemployment early warning of college graduates, this studydiscussed on two ways of coupling–index and signs warning. During process of signs warning, itmade regression analysis of effecting indicators to get sings index, then use diffusion index method to determine the warning interval and the warning line. During process of index warnings, due toimperfect of data base of index system of current college graduates unemployment status, the studytook forecasting result of the single indicators of unemployment rate to make discussion ondetermination of warning. Results referred that the current status unemployment of our country’scollege graduates is in low district, but it’s near to moderate district, the risk of unemployment can notbe ignored. And according to the quality analysis of unemployment for college graduates, the socialemployer in recruit college students as well as the payment of remuneration concept of prejudice andthe deviation of the concept of employment of college students and their families will lead to furtherexacerbation. Meanwhile, the social security system is not supporting the students’ unemployment islikely to be stuffed into a serious social problem. Previous studies on early-warning system ofunemployment of college graduates are mostly based on qualitative analysis judge, this studycombined indicates and signs index early-warning methods based on the overall analysis, takingmultiple regression diffusion index, Delphi method, a variety of methods to judge trends of collegegraduates’ unemployment, which provided a convincing basis for correctly understanding of thesituation and development trend of college graduates’ unemployment. Finally, the study proposednumbers of polices and measures to prevent the deterioration of the college graduates’ unemploymentby adjusting the industrial economic policy around the creation of employment by changing the modeof economic growth; expanding employment ways, improving the employment system protection;moderating planning the development of higher education scale and optimizing the structure of highereducation, as well as improving the labor market.