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Research On Investment Evaluation And Risk Management In Private Higher Education Of China

Posted on:2013-11-30Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:D L YangFull Text:PDF
GTID:1267330422952730Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
After nearly30years’ development, China’s private higher education has made remarkableachievements. The private higher education has been replenished by higher education, and it has beenan integral part of higher education in China. With the rapid development of private higher education,a series of problems have appeared in recent years. Some private colleges are facing with theproblems of enrollment difficulties, inefficient investment and weak sustainable development. Someprivate colleges are even shutting down and closing down. Facing the increasing competitive pressurefrom higher education, how to improve investment efficiency, how to enhance risk prevention andcontrol capacity of investment so as to achieve sustainable development have become the importantproblems for the government and researchers.By analyzing and discussing the investment and risk management of China’s private higher education,the thesis aims to improve and perfect the theory of China’s private higher education investment andrisk management, and provide a quantitative analysis technique for investment decision-making andrisk management technology of private higher education, and provide a theoretical guidance for theincrease of investment efficiency and investment risk management level in private higher education,and provide a reference for the government to formulate policies and the private higher educationinvestors to make decisions.Based on disciplines of higher education, education economics, investment and management theory,the research adopts a method combing normative analysis with empirical analysis, qualitative analysiswith quantitative analysis, static analysis with dynamic analysis. It integrates the new technology ofthe application of modern management science and systems science, making a systematic research onprivate higher education investment and risk management. The main achievements and conclusionsare as follows:(1)Make a systematic analysis of the status of China’s private higher education development andinvestment, and identify the problems in the investment of private higher education. The analysisresults show that the development process of China’s private higher education has experienced severalphases from the established phase of running status, the space expansion phase, high-speeddevelopment phase to comprehensive adjustment phase. Meanwhile, the phase characteristics ofunceasingly scale expansion, increasingly rich and colorful mode, continually expanded educationlevel and the continuous improvement in the education quality have been presented. Compared withthe developed countries, our private colleges have not built diversified financing channels and theircapital source channels are single. They are running the colleges depending on the tuition fees. Thefinancial input from the government is far less than that of the developed countries. The privatecolleges are facing many problems such as the limited rising space of tuition fees, hard bank loans, theobvious contradiction between supply and demand structures, unbalanced regional development andso on.(2)Establish the measurement model and the benefit evaluation system of investment efficiency ofChina’s private higher education. Based on the analysis of the formation of the costs and profits in private education, investor’s perspective and education internal rate of return calculation, the researchbuilds a dynamic measurement model and proposes a method of confirming the investment incomeinterval of private higher education. The reasonable return interval is also calculated concretely, whichprovides an evidence for their decision-making. Guided by the higher education income theory andcost-sharing theory, this research is based on the calculation of the costs and benefits of private highereducation, which takes the influencing factors to the benefits from the fixed asset investment paybackperiod into consideration and divides the calculation formulae into two, namely, the measurementformulae inside and outside the return period of fix asset investment, which replenishes the drawbacksof traditional return rate of investment and offers a new method for its calculation. This method is alsoadapted to calculate the investment income interval of private higher education inside and outsidetheir return period of fix asset investment. The results can objectively reflect the dynamic changes ofreturn rate on investment in different phases and offer a reference for the investment of private highereducation. This model overcomes that the traditional rate of return calculation method can’t reflect thebenefits and costs of the time value of drawbacks, and is able to make the measure results of theinvestment rate of return of private higher education more reasonable, which offers a new method forthe calculation of the investment rate of return. Furthermore, an evaluation target system ofinvestment benefits is built. Based on the analysis of the matrix associated method, the investmentefficiency dynamic evaluation model is established. The validity of the model is verified throughempirical analysis so as to quantify and evaluate the return of private higher education.(3)Construct the risk assessment and early warning system of China’s private higher education. Byanalyzing the causes of investment risk, the research builds a private college’s investment riskassessment index system in accordance with the goals and characteristics of private higher educationrisk assessment. Combined with the characteristics of the gray clustering assessment, and with thethinking of gray triangle whitening weight evaluation, the research builds the investment riskassessment model that is suitable for private higher education, and verifies the validity of the modelthrough empirical analysis. This model can realize the classification of the investment risk of privatecolleges and provides a new method for the investment risk assessment. Moreover, the early warningsystem of China’s private higher education we designed includes the construction of early warningindicator system, establishment of warning degree model, set of warning degree and so on. Based onthe efficacy coefficient method, the research proposes the warning degree model of private highereducation investment risk, and verifies the validity of the model through empirical analysis. Themodel based on gray triangle whitening weight evaluation is the effective method to make the riskinvestment evaluation in private colleges, which can realize the whole assessment of private colleges’risk investment. The model based on the efficacy coefficient method is an effective way of privatecolleges’ investment risk warning, which can realize the risk warning in advance and offer help for theprevention of risk investment. Hence, the evaluation results can provide references for the investmentrisk warning, while risk warning is the extension of risk assessment. The two models complement andverify each other, and provide a complete method system for the analysis and warning of riskinvestment in private colleges. Moreover, they offer a diversified tool for the investment managementand risk warning research of private higher education.(4)Predict the trend of the investment environment of China’s private higher education and proposethe relevant investment countermeasures of private higher education. The forecasting results show that during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, seeing from the macro economic environment, thegovernment will provide a favorable external economic environment for the sustained and healthydevelopment of China’s private higher education. Seeing from investment policy environment, thegovernment will put forward the policy and regulation establishment of legal person system,autonomy in running colleges, preferential tax, and financial aid, and financial management,protection of teachers and students rights and so on. The policy and regulation system of privatehigher education will be further perfected. S Seeing from the enrollment situations, although the birthrate is declining, with the gross enrollment rate upgrading and expansion of enrollment, enrollmentscale and students’ quantity of China’s private higher education will have a substantial increase. Thestudents of private colleges are relatively abundant during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period. Seeingfrom the vocational trend of private higher education, diversified development and legally collegerunning are the current. Seeing from the investment potential of private colleges, the return rate ofinvestment will increase compared with that in the “11th Five-Year Plan” period. China’s privatecolleges will enter the combined phase of economic scale and connotation ascension. In the process ofrapid development, private colleges also face the pressure from the competition between publicuniversities and private colleges. Meanwhile, the whole college running levels are low and thecomprehensive competitiveness is weak, and the potential risks like sources of students, operation,management, policy and indeterminacy are obvious day by day. Therefore, the private colleges appearhere and there, and this situation will last for a certain period. Finally, from the view of improvinginvestment efficiency and strengthening the investment risk control, this research proposes theinvestment countermeasures that are suitable for the development status of China’s private highereducation, and provides beneficial references for China’s private higher education investment and riskmanagement.
Keywords/Search Tags:private higher education, investment efficiency measurement, reasonable return interval, investment risk evaluation, investment risk warning
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