Optimization And Simulation Research On Supply Of Raw Materials Based On Forestry-Paper Integration

Papermaking was one of the "four great inventions" of ancient China, and left a brilliantpage in the history of mankind. Information age of the21st century, the advent of the electronicage could not shake the important position of paper products in the development of all sectorsof society. China’s forest resources are relatively limited, due to the long-term deforestation andthe available resources in many areas of the country are on the verge of depletion. Thetraditional mode of seperation of forest, pulp and paper has caused a great demand for thesupply of raw materials, which will inevitably lead to the supply gap of timber resource. Themodel of Forestry-Paper integration that can withstand the enterprises to survive the crisis dueto fluctuations in the prices of raw materials, to ensure a steady supply of long-term forestresources; At the same time, the internal redistribution of interests in integration Group in orderto maximize the overall interests of grouping can resist the impact of external economicfluctuations to the Group’s business.Supply management of raw materials in Forestry-Paper integration supply chain is themost central part of Forestry-Paper integration supply chain. The objective of supplymanagements of raw materials is to ensure the sustainable supply of timber used inpapermaking plant to avoid dramatic fluctuations of raw material prices and supplyshortages ofraw materials.Currently, the serious backlog of wood chips in Forest&Paper Group has caused serioustimber loss and the descending in the quality of timber; Inventory of paper products can not besold in the short term, to cause capital occupied; Unreasonable distribution of productioncapacity on a variety of paper products, could not maximize to meet customer demand for paperproducts; Balanced production can not be achieved, to result in higher cost of production andoperation. For these situations, a comprehensive solution to optimization of short-term supplyof raw materials was proposed. Firstly, the optimization of Short-term supply of raw materialswas to predict the sales of paper products, then according to the results of the sales forecasting,production capacity was rationally allocated, and finally the strategy and planning of supply ofraw materials was scheduled. Short-term optimization of supply of raw material was helpful torealize the balance of demand and supply of materials. Not only smooth production but alsoeconomical production were achieved, the costs of production and operating was reduced, andthe yield of the paper products was improved.In order to avoid long-term supply shortages of raw material, overcapacity, and to ensurethe sustainable supply of timber in Forest&Paper Group, and on the premise of realizing theunification of the economic value, the forest ecological benefits and social benefits, promotingsustainable development of forestry economic and regional ecological, achieving themaximization of the economic value of the forest was required. In order to achieve the aboveobjectives, the long-term simulation control system of material supply based on Forestry-Papersupply chain was established. Firstly, preparation was ready for simulation, includingestablishment of the simulation constraint environment—paper sales forecasting model, timberprocurement forecasting model and tree growth model, the goal of simulation control was set—strategic planning， supply transition period of controllable woodland which formed a stable wood supply and the rate of timber external dependency, and the simulation variables was input—woodland quantity, tree felling programs and forest strategic reserve level; then calculation oflong-term simulation based on Forestry-Paper supply chain was executed and simulation resultswas put out—the amount of harvesting wood per year during strategic planning period, theamount of wood purchased each year during the strategic planning, the amount of shortage ofwood during strategic planning period, the volume of live trees at the end of the simulation, theaverage referenced economic value per woodland, supply transition period of controllablewoodland which formed a stable wood supply during strategic planning period, and the rate oftimber external dependency during strategic planning period; Suggest solutions to solve theproblem of shortage of wood supply by increasing the supply of virtual woodland; Compare theoutput of simulations, adjust the simulation control variables, and ran simulation again; Finally,select excellent simulation programs as decision-making options.The problems of poor reusability and flexibility of optimization and simulation weresolved by the integration of short-term optimization and long-term simulation of supply of rawmaterials based on Forestry-Paper supply chain with ERP system.Optimization and simulation were important parts of their decision-making support in ERPsystems. With the increasing emphasis on strategic decision-making and optimization, and moreand more mature of the theories and methods of simulation and optimization, supportingdecision-making in ERP system would be an important indicator to determine thecompetitiveness of ERP.