Land Resources Allocation And Its Effect On Equilibrium Of Real Estate Market

Real estate market presents a cyclic fluctuation, which is inevitable but within areasonable range, or the development of national economy and people’s normal life will beaffected. It has been one of the main tasks for government to achieve the balanced andhealthy development of real estate market, which is at the same time one of the goals themasses looking forward to. Real estate market, a kind of policy-oriented market, is subjectto macro-economic policies, for the scarcity of the land and importance of real estatemarket, land policy has come into part of real estate market macro-control policies. Theeffective deployment of land resources is beneficial to related indices of real estate marketand contributes to balanced operation of real estate market. Grounded upon the operation ofreal estate market, elements of reasonable reserve scale, supply timing and supply structurein land resources allocation are determined respectively. All in all, effective allocation ofland resources is favorable to related indices of real estate market and balanced operation ofreal estate market.First, following the actual allocation of land resources, analyze the status quo of realestate market operation; forecast the development of real estate market in the forthcomingfive years with the method of Markov by housing prices and real estate sales; establishcomprehensive assessment index system of real estate operation with the use of analytichierarchy process, at the same time, calculate equilibrium coefficient of real estate marketin recent years.Second, in the condition of balanced development of real estate market, make clear theamount of land requirements by BP neural network, RBF neural network, regressionanalysis, theories of time series prediction and gray system; establish the model of landoptimal reserves by inventory theory; considering risk factors, propose the concept of landsafety inventory in order to promote the balanced development of the real estate market.Third, build up the relationship between the elements and supply of land area in realestate market using neural networks; determine optimum land supply timing through theinvestigation of the effect of land supply timing on housing price and commercial housingsales by the relentless changing time of land supply area; compare equilibrium coefficientsof real estate market before and after the adjustment of land supply timing.Fourth, divide the real estate market in31provinces and cities on mainland China intofour categories according to the three indices of supply, demand and market by cluster analysis, then analyze the balance and land supply of the four kinds of real estate markets;forge the relational model of annual growth rate of supply of various types, supply arearatio of various types, housing prices and real estate sales respectively with gray systemtheory.Fifth, combined with China’s national conditions, strategies concerning land resourcesallocation in the aspects of land reserve scale, land supply timing and land supply structureare put forward to obtain the balanced development of real estate market.In this dissertation, index system of balanced development status of real estate marketconcerning the four aspects of supply, demand, transaction results and macro-control isfinally set up, which can be used to evaluate the operation status of real estate market ineach year or each city; the reasonable land reserve scale, supply timing and supply structureis established in view of the relationship between the operation indices of real estate marketand allocation elements of land resources, and based upon this, the contrast before and afterthe allocation element changes of land resources of real estate market’s equilibrium status ismade, then, suggestions on land policies that are appropriate to China’s real estate market isproposed.