| Though Lewis Turning-Point is not a new concept, new problems related to it may be created in the specific historical background. As to old, because there has been60years since Lewis issued this concept in his classic essay in1954for the first time; on the contrary, it seems young as the domestic surge of labor shortages stirs a new round of academic debate on Lewis Turning-Point in China. On March16,2014, the national new-type urbanization planning (2014-2020) announces that100million agricultural labors become urban residents in next6years.The news can always stir up another round of hot discussions on the Chinese mainland. In the process of urbanization, these problems such as reduce of China’s demographic dividend or labour migrantion or a wide gap between rural and urban areas, have become indisputable facts. The Chinese government must meet the challenges of restructuring the economy or breaking through the existing bottleneck, achieve the goal of labor migration orderly from rural area to urban area, and implement national urbanization development strategy. The research of Lewis Turning-Point is a starting point to all above, when the dual economy theory fails to make a reasonable explanation for the issues of China’s reality, this paper will bring breakthroughs and effectively explain these phenomena.Around the Lewis Turning-Point study, this paper includes theoretical analysis, empirical analysis and numerical simulation.The core and key concept of Lewis Turning-Point is clearly defined in the theory part, then I will analyse the dual economic model, assumptions, standards of Lewis Turning-Point and operation mechanism. The studies show that Minami law is a rigorous process and relatively effective testing standard.Based on theoretical analysis, the author carries on the empirical analysis and the results show: Chinese economy has arrived at the first Lewis Turning-Point between2004and2008, but the second Lewis Turning-Point does not occurred, it is currently in Lewis Turning-Point range. By using Trangslog production function model and the sample data from21provinces and cities between1980and2011, the thesis analyzes the wage gap between agriculture and industry sector and their correlation. The study also found that:(1) the gap of wages between two sectors was declining. This trend suddenly reached the lowest point from2004to2008, then tended to be stable;(2) there is a cointegration relationship between the agricultural sector wages and marginal productivity of labor, moreover Granger causality relationships has been found;(3) with the development of economy, the correlations of both side continue to strengthen, with the coefficient increases from0to1;(4) the transfer of rural surplus labor is benefit to rising marginal labor productivity, as well as bringing real wages of the industrial sector rising gradually, and asynchronous changes. Their relationships haven’t reached the stage of complete correlation.Based on above, I have constructed a model of Lewis Turning-Point evolution path based on the general equilibrium model, for forecasting its movement with the method of numerical simulation. Results show:(1) the output of industrial sector will influence Lewis Turning-Point positively, and the Chinese economy will not meet Lewis Turning-Point in the next10years, but an increase in industry output will accelerate the coming of Lewis turning point;(2) the influence of capital elements is similar to industry production, physical capitals have made positive effect obviously in the early stage of economic development, the effect of human capital begin to emerge when economic development reaching a certain stage;(3) the efficiency variance of two sectors is negative to the Lewis Turning-Point.The innovation of the thesis is mainly reflected in three aspects:Firstly, I make comprehensive and systematic discussion on the Lewis Turning-Point theory, such as the analysis on the operation mechanism of the Turning-Point, the evaluation standards, empirical tests, simulation prediction, and so on. These steps broaden the horizons and fields for the study of China’s Lewis Turning-Point. Secondly, I make an attempt at new research methods and various indicators to find solutions that people never would have considered. By trans-log production model, I estimate the output elasticity of agriculture labour, taking into full account the neutral between elements, technology effect, and the efficiency technology, which are useful to understand the productivity of the agricultural sector and geographic differences in China. So, the conclusion is more convictive than before. Finally, with the help of Matlab software and different parameters converted from policy changes, the model can simulate Lewis Turning-Point better in the evolution path of China. Especially, the paper explains the cause of deviation and puts forward some policy suggestions. |
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