The Criterion For The Lewis Turning Point And The Empirical Study In China

Since the reform and the opening up,the economy of China has been grown up rapidly.As a typical dualistic economy country,China is rich in labor,the rapidly growth of economy has an inseparable connection with the rich supply of the labor.The supply of labor is mainly derived from two ways: Firstly,a large number of rural surplus labor has been continuously transferred to the urban modern unit.Secondly,the family planning policy also enables a large number of working-age labors,especially female workers,to enter the labor market.This high growth momentum is weakened by the slowdown in the growth of the working age and the difference in the labor force.The phenomenon of “shortage of migrant workers” appeared in some areas,and the enterprises were plagued by high cost of labor.Some scholars believe that China's labor market has completed the transformation from unlimited supply to shortage,which is attributed to that the turning point of China's Lewis has come.However,some experts and scholars have questioned it.Is there a shortage of labor in China? If the present change in the supply and demand of the labor market can represent that China's Lewis point has come? Will China's economic growth slowdown or even stagnate? Therefore,a correct judgment of the Lewis turning point of can not only help us to recognize the current status of China's economic development,but also guide China's future economic development path.This paper is based on the following lines: the criterion of Lewis' s turning point and the empirical study of China.(On the one hand,the paper elaborates on the Lewis' s economic model,the Ranis-Fei model and the theory of the Lewis-Ranis-Fei economic model.Upon this,the criterion of the first and second turning points of Lewis is listed,which lays the theoretical foundation for the empirical research below.On the other hand,on the basis of theoretical research and salary and marginal productivity of labor,this paper empirically studies the dual economy of China.Through empirical analysis,it is concluded that the central and western regions have not yet crossed the first turning point,but China has already crossed Lewis' s first turning point as a whole.However,the second turning point has not yet come to achieve the unified development of the economy.In the end,the paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions for China's early realization of economic unification,getting rid of the underdeveloped economic development in the Midwest and avoiding the negative impact of labor transfer on agricultural production.From the perspective of agricultural department,we should continue to improve the system,strengthen the support of capital and technology,accelerate the diversification of rural economic development and improve the productivity of labor in the agricultural sector to release more agricultural population dividends.From the perspective of modern department,we should continue to accelerate the upgrading of industries,improve the education system of migrant workers' children and the settlement system of migrant workers,improve the efficiency of capital market operation,and enhance the productivity of modern sectors,so as to absorb the surplus labor force in the agricultural sector.