| Since China’s reform and opening up, China has received worldwide attention with its distinctive merging pattern into the global economy. The main form of China’s characteristic pattern is the "explosive growth" in exports. According to the preliminary statistics of the WTO secretariat, China ranked the first goods trading country in2013, with its trade value increased from$20.6billion in1978to$4.16trillion in2013and the average annual growth of16.4%. And China has been the world’s largest export trading nation for5consecutive years since2009when it firstly surpassed Germany. As a main source of China’s export growth, manufactured goods has become the largest kind of China’s export products, with the ratio95.09%of the total export of2012. Obviously, China has become a leading exporter of manufactured goods all over the world.At the same time, China began to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) since the late1970s, and "exchanging market with technology" was the attitude towards FDI for a quite a long time. The in-pouring of huge amount of FDI has been playing an important role in promoting solving the shortage of funds and the relative surplus labor force and pushing the technological innovation. After more than30years of investment promotion and capital introduction, China has become the world second place, the first in the developing world in attracting FDI, among which the manufacturing industry accounted for about half of the total amount of FDI in the actual amount of absorbing FDI.However, the largest exporter is not necessarily equal to the export power. Despite of huge quantity, what about the quality of exports? How to measure the domestic technology contents of China’s local manufacturing industry? Whether is it been far more than that of developing countries at the same income levels? How does the FDI technology spillovers have an effect on the domestic technology contents of China’s local manufacturing industry and for what degree? It is quite necessary to explain and solve all these problems.After reviewing the related literature, this paper finds that much more attention has been paid to the direct influence of FDI on the export scale and structure although the FDI explanation of China’s export fast expansion since China’s reform and opening up and especially in the mid1990s from the perspective of FDI has always been the focus of literature. The research in the indirect influence of FDI is more focused on the influence of FDI on technology progress, productivity promotion and economic growth. In other words, much work has not been focused on the influence of FDI technology spillover on the export technology content let alone its influence on the domestic technology contents of China’s local manufacturing industry.On that account, it is necessary to make a detailed measurement and analysis combining the concrete circumstance of our country. Based on the classic economics, industry economics, international trade, FDI theory and statistical theory, making a comprehensive use of normative analysis, the method of literature research, statistical analysis and empirical test, this paper focus on the influence of FDI technology spillover on the domestic technology contents of China’s local manufacturing industry.Specifically, this paper mainly discusses the following questions:Firstly, it analyzes the current situation of FDI and exports of China’s manufacturing industry, using the related data analysis.Secondly, it theoretically discusses on the influence of FDI technology spillover on the domestic technology contents of China’s local manufacturing industry with the first analysis of the specific mechanism of action, and then a theoretical explanation on "statistical illusion" and the concrete influence.Thirdly, it measures the FDI technology spillover and domestic technology content of China’s local manufacturing exports using statistical methods, so as to provide data support for the empirical test.Fourthly, it tests empirically the influence of FDI technology spillover on the domestic technology contents of China’s local manufacturing industry after the establishment of measurement model.Summarizing the full text, some enlightening and valuable conclusions are as follows:Firstly, from the measure results, the change trend of domestic technology content of China’s local manufacturing exports from2003to2011is different from that of general export and domestic technology content. Generally it did not rise sharply, nor did it drop dramatically. Specifically speaking, domestic technology content of China’s local manufacturing exports in most of the specific maufactuing industry changed little, with the large but not obvious vaiations in chemical industry, papermaking, printing and stationery industry, and the downward trend in Instrumentation and cultural office machinery manufacturing. Secondly, there is no linear but the "inverted U" nonlinear relationship between FDI horizontal technology spillover and the domestic technology contents of China’s local manufacturing industry. Before it reaches the critical value, the horizontal technology spillover may improve the level of the domestic technology content, but then may have a nagtive effect.Thirdly, as to vertical FDI technology spillover, there is only positive linear relationship between FDI backword technology spillover and the domestic technology contents of China’s local manufacturing industry export, which account for the positive role of FDI in promoting the domestic technology contents of China’s local manufacturing industry. There is no linear but the "U" nonlinear relationship between FDI forward technology spillover and the domestic technology contents of China’s local manufacturing industry. Before reacheing the critical value, the forward technology spillover has a nagtive effect, while after the critical value, it will improve the level of the domestic technology content.Compared with the existing literature, the innovation of this paper are as follows:First of all, it make a targeted research over the influence of FDI technology spillover on the domestic technology content of China’s export of local manufacturing industry.This paper firstly constructs the theoretical model and then the empirical model using Chinese native manufacturing data for empirical testing. No similar study has been found in the existing literature.Secondly, it defines and measures the domestic technology content of China’s export of manufacturing industry. This paper firstly calculates the export technology content of China’s manufacturing industry segment, and then deducts imported intermediate inputs and the part of foreign capital enterprise, at last it gets the domestic technology content of China’s local manufacturing industry export. The existing literature mainly focuses on the export technology content from product level and national level, ignoring the industry level, let alone the distiguishment between the local and foreign enterprises.Finally, it subdivides and measures the FDI technical spillover, and analyzes the influence of FDI technology spillover on the domestic technology content of China’s export of local manufacturing industry from theoretical and empirical aspects. It concludes that there is "inverted U","U" type and positive linear relationship between the horizontal, forward and backward FDI technology spillover and the domestic technology content of China’s local manufacturing industry export. Most of the existing literature does not subdivides the FDI technology spillover effect, nor does it discuss the influence.In fact, as an important pillar industry in our national economy, the manufacturing industry of life, its status and role cannot be ignored. It is very important and necessary for a major FDI country and an important exporter of manufactured goods to measure the true state of the domestic technology content of China’s local manufacturing industry export through the "statistical illusion" and guide the technology spillover of FDI so as to better utilize the influence of FDI technology spillover on the domestic technology content of China’s local manufacturing industry export.Therefore, this paper finally puts forward the countermeasures and Suggestions of the following four aspects:Firstly, attention should be paid to the accurate measurement of the domestic technology content of China’s local manufacturing industry export. Experts and scholars should be organized to improve the existing input-output table, popularize the Value-Added trade statistics and release data as well as research findings in a timely and regular fashion, so as to build a real and effective measure index system.Secondly, we should pay attention to the horizontal FDI technology spillover effect and make it under control using its "inverted U" nonlinear relationship with the domestic technology content of China’s local manufacturing industry export.(1)In terms of demonstration-imitation effect, we should pay attention to cultivate the technological learning and absorbing ability of local enterprises, encourage domestic enterprises engaged in independent innovation, including the overall product and key components and core technology, and strengthen the supervision of scientific research funds usage, and the protection of intellectual property rights as well as increasing investment in scientific research.(2) In terms of competition effect, full attention should be paid to and measures should be take to deal with both positive and negative influence produced by the competition effect.(3) In terms of human capital flow effect, measures should be take to attract high-tech talent flow through means of special funds and joint training, so as to give full play to the mechanism of FDI technology spillover effect.Thirdly, we should pay attention to the forward and backward FDI technology spillover effect in improving the domestic technology content of China’s local manufacturing export. On the one hand, we should actively bring in the FDI which could set up deep backward relationship with local manufacturers through encouragement and restriction policies, so as to give full play to the backward technology spillover effect of FDI, on the other hand, we should actively bring in the FDI which could set up forward relationship with local manufacturers by means of providing intermediates with higher standard in the middle of the downstream products through all kinds of preferential policies and supports. However, the forward FDI technology spillover effect would work after reaching the critical value because of the "U" nonlinear relationship.Finally, we should pay attention to the introduction of high quality FDI and properly strengthen the policy guidance. First, the focus of investment policy should be shifted from quantity to quality, and attentions should be paid to the introduction of a high level of FDI, improving the FDI from the developed countries and regions and carefully screening and checking the FDI from tax havens, so as to avoid the in-pour of low-level "false foreign capital" into our country through various channels. Second, we should properly strengthen the policy guidance taking example by the "negative list" method used in Shanghai free trade area. |
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