Climate Policy,Trade And Carbon Dioxide Emissions

In recent years,the CO₂ emissions from fossil energy consumption have increased year by year,and the greenhouse effect has become more and more obvious.The occurrence of climate disasters has been increasing frequently.The issue of trade and carbon emissions has attracted the attention of academia for a long time,and many countries also have recognized the importance and urgency of carbon emissions reduction.However the implementation of specific emission reduction policies varies much between countries,which leads to the international carbon reduction agreement not be reached and seriously hampers the realization of global emission reduction targets.Therefore,the studies of climate policy,trade and carbon emissions have important theoretical and practical significance.This thesis attempts to analyze the impact of the differences in climate policy between countries and trade on carbon emissions from the theoretical and empirical perspectives,and it is expected to provide policy basis for global carbon reduction,especially for China.China is in the period of double transformation,not only facing the problem of slowing economic growth,but also the greater pressure by international community calls for reducing emissions.This study will provide ideas for China's trade development and emission reduction policies.On the basis of reviewing the relevant literature,this thesis makes a descriptive statistical analysis of the climate policy,intra-product trade and carbon emission of the world.Then we build a theoretical model which contains multiple countries,three sectors?producing tradable intermediate goods,composite intermediate goods and non-tradable final consumer goods,respectively?to analyze the impact of climate policy and trade on carbon emissions.In the case of transboundary pollution,a country's climate policy not only affects its own carbon emissions,but also influences global carbon emissions through vertical links caused by the intra-product trade and a series of external effects.The coordination of climate policies between countries will also affect the equilibrium situation,thus affecting the level of balanced climate policy and environmental pollution.The results of numerical simulation show that although the vertical link effect does not exceed the free-riding effect?transboundary pollution externalities and spillovers externality?,the vertical linkages amplifies the effects of productivity losses caused by climate policy,thereby reducing global emissions.On the basis of theoretical model,the thesis analysis the influence of climate policy and intra-product trade on carbon emission transfer by using cross-country panel data.The calculation results of China's carbon emission transfer caused by import and export show that carbon emissions transfer caused by exports is far greater than carbon emissions transfer caused by imports,while carbon emissions transfer accounted for a higher proportion in certain industries.The results of the two-pole decomposition method show that the contribution of the intra-product trade structure effect and the intra-product trade structure effect to carbon emissions transfer is gradually increasing and has become the dominant factor.Then the thesis use the cross-country panel data to do the empirical analysis on the basis of extending the traditional gravitational model.The results of the econometric analysis show that the increase of the climate policy intensity in the country has significantly reduced the carbon emissions transfer and the intensity of carbon emission transfer.The strengthening of the climate policy of the trading partners has increased the carbon emissions transfer caused by exports in China,but the core coefficients are not significant.When the sample data were grouped by developed and developing countries,the results of the regression were different.The intra-product trade between China and the developed countries reduced the carbon emissions transfer caused by exports in China,while the trade with developing countries increased China's carbon emissions transfer caused by exports,which may ascribe to China's trading with these countries at different levels.For a more detailed analysis of the impact of climate policy and trade on carbon emissions,we use the Kyoto Protocol as an example,using national trade flow data to test whether the differences in climate policy will lead to carbon leakage.The results of the regression show that when only the exporting countries sign the "Kyoto Protocol" or only the importing country signs the "Kyoto Protocol",carbon emission embodied in bilateral imports will increase by about 8%,of which about 3%is caused by technical effects,and the rest is caused by scale effect,which supports the existence of significant carbon leakage phenomenon.Finally,we summarize the main conclusions of the paper and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.We point out that China needs to to increase the technological content of export products,improve our position in the global value chain,and further promote the construction of a national carbon emissions trading market,improve our clean Energy technology,industrial production skills,optimize the distribution of China's industry and enterprises in the region.On the other hand,countries need to strengthen coordination on carbon reduction policies,develop and effectively implement a coherent global emission reduction agreement.