Research On The Effect Of The GVC Specialization On Embodied Carbon Emissions In Trade

With the deepening trends of the global value chain(GVC)specialization,China actively participates in GVC by importing and processing intermediate products and export final products,and pays serious environmental costs while gaining the trade benefits.At present,China has surpassed the United States to become the largest carbon emission country in the world.Under the background of international carbon emission reduction,this extensive trade mode has brought great pressure to China.Therefore,it is necessary to study the impact of the GVC specialization on the embodied carbon emissions,and explore the path of China's integration into the GVC,in order to achieve high trade value-added while reducing carbon emissions embodied in trade.Firstly,this paper analyzes the direct and indirect impact mechanism of the GVC specialization to the embodied carbon emissions.Secondly,based on the World Input-Output Table and Environmental Account Data for 1995-2011,measures the degree of the GVC specialization and the embodied carbon emissions,and analyzes the relationship from the national and the industry level.Thirdly,builds dynamic panel model and panel threshold model in order to research the direct and indirect effects of the GVC specialization on embodied carbon emissions,and verify the hypothesis presented earlier.Fourthly,builds the profitability index,competitiveness index and net export embodied carbon emissions per unit domestic value added,to find the conflict between trade interests and environmental interests while different industries integrating into the GVC.Finally,finds the development path of China's low carbonization while integrating into the global value chain.According to the theoretical and empirical research,the following conclusions are obtained:(1)countries with higher position in the GVC have a significantly trend that the increasing rate of the export embodied carbon emissions is lower than the import.The position in the GVC of service industry is generally higher than that of manufacturing industry,while the participation degree is lower than that of the latter.However,the implied carbon emissions of service industry are significantly lower than that of manufacturing industry.(2)China participates in the GVC with the trade mode which mainly imports and processes intermediate goods and exports final products and has low position in the GVC.(3)the participation degree of the GVC is positively correlated with the embodied carbon emissions,while the higher position in the GVC can reduce the export embodied carbon emissions,but this reduction effect has thresholds.With the increase of GVC's position,the scale effect is becoming smaller and smaller,and the emission reduction effect of structure,technology and environmental regulation is also gradually emerging.China has a lower position in the GVC,and the emission reduction effect of structure,technology and environmental regulation while integrating into GVC is not significant.(4)Countries with high position in GVC like Russia,Australia,Brazil,Indonesia,Japan,the United Kingdom etc can significantly reduce export embodied carbon emissions through structural effects and environmental regulation effects.But in China,the reduction effects are not significant.(5)there are certain conflicts between the trade interests and environmental interests while China integrating into the GVC.China attaches great importance to the investment in the manufacturing industries with low value added and high carbon emissions,but ignores the development of service industries and energy industries with high GVC's division,strong profitability,and low carbon emissions.Emphasis on the development of these industries is conducive to the realization of China's carbon emission reduction targets.Based on this,puts forward some suggestions on the China's low carbonization while participating into GVC.The innovation of this paper is to study the relationship between the GVC specialization and the embodied carbon emissions in trade,expand the research of the carbon emissions in foreign trade,and increase the environmental regulation effect as the indirect impact of the GVC specialization on the embodied carbon emissions.In addition,measures the profitability index,competitiveness index and net export embodied carbon emissions per unit domestic value added,from the perspective of trade interests and environmental interests to explore the path of integrating into the GVC to achieve low carbon development,realize the real landing of this study.