The Research Of The Effects From Vertical Specialization To Embodied Carbon Emissions Of Sino-US Trade

The rapid modernization process of China make the world marvel,but at the same time,we have to admit the fact that land,air and water have become the cost of development.What we can see is the bright achievements of China,what we can't see is environment has been polluted seriously.Environmental problems,especially "haze"caused by environmental pollution,stage in various parts of China,which has been a serious threat to basic survival and development of nation.The task of controlling environment pollution like reducing carbon dioxide emissions has been placed in front of everyone.Compared to traditional intra-industry division with complete product-based industry division,now international trade is based on intra-product division.Segmentation will continue and the process of production is finely cut into many links.Each country only participate one or few specific aspects of specialized production processes.Traditional trade pattern has been broken,which is also largely responsible domestic industrial structure change.China's participation in international vertical division of industry will directly affect related carbon dioxide emissions.China and the US are the two most important global economies,while trade between them also experienced nearly a decade of rapid growth.BY 2016,China and the US have become each other's most important business partners.That's why the bilateral trade between China and the US has great influence in Chinese carbon emissions.And the relationship between Sino-US trade and Chinese carbon emissions implied very important theory and practical significance to environmental problems solving.The paper adopts quantitative analysis method.Firstly,based on WIOD input-output tables database,this paper select the data of inputs of domestic,imported inputs and outputs,combined with UNCOMTRADE Sino-US trade data in order to calculate the Chinese exports vertical specialization ratio with the US in 15 industries in 1995-2011.Secondly,this paper calculates the carbon emission factor by industry according to WIOD database,with introducing the "imported intermediate goods"into the calculation model.Instead of making any assumptions concerning the technical coefficients of intermediate countries,the paper calculated all related technical coefficients and put them into the formula,building a single regional input-output model,and measured accurately the amount of embodied carbon emission.Finally,this paper has done econometric analysis by using two main indicators,vertical specialization ratio and trade embodied carbon emission,bring industry competitiveness and trade openness as two variables to analysis the influence from the level of vertical specialization to embodied carbon emissions,as well as conducting various factors.By calculating and analyzing throughout the paper,it obtain the following conclusions:(1)China's exports to the US in vertical specialization ratio is rising in recent 15 years,indicating that the features of "incoming import" in China's exports is more obvious.And the vertical division of fabricated metal products and electrical manufacturing and other complex multi-industry are rising,while textile and leather industry and other light industry are declining.(2)The original countries of imported intermediate goods and the international economic environment show significant fluctuation to China-US trade embodied carbon emissions in the seventeen-year study interval.Resembling to vertical division,complex and heavy industries such as fabricated metal products are heavy polluting industries,but the emission intensity has decreased,while the textile and wood processing industry are mostly weak emission industries.(3)The result of panel VAR show that the relationship between China's exports to the US in vertical specialization ratio and China-US trade embodied carbon emissions implied negative effects which are divided into direct and indirect transmission mechanism.In the final,based on the above analysis results,the paper put forward several recommendations in industry and national level.Structural adjustment and technology will be top priority concerning environmental problems.