Study On Event Chain Model Of Sudden Risk Omen Factor Caused By Coal And Gas Outburst

Recognition,management and control of outburst risks are crucial to the improvement of mine saftety management.In recent years,it has been eased to some extent,but the situation of coal and gas outburst prevention and control is still grim,due to the weak safety foundation,especially the asynchronous development of the "soft" and hardware foundation of safety management.Therefore,the three tylpes of hazard theory-based analysis of the functional mechanism of sudden risk omen factors,and the study on event chain model of sudden risk omen of coal and gas outburst can provide new ideas and methods for further enhancing prevention and control of the coal and gas outburst disasters.In view of this,the main research work and achievements of this paper are as follows:(1)The paper analyzed the characteristics of coal and gas outburst disasters.Then,based on the Theory of Three Types of Hazard,it further analyzed the causal relationship between all kinds of sudden risk factors in typical coal and gas outburst cases,and analyzed the hierarchical structure of coal and gas outburst hazard by using interpretative structural model.Lastly,it put forward event chain model of sudden risk omen of coal and gas outburst,and the conceptual model of disaster event chain.(2)The paper established index system of three classes of mutagenic risk factors.It established the first mutagenic factor index system of coal and gas outburst from the two aspects of coal and gas occurrence,established the second mutagenic risk factor index system of coal and gas outburst based on the aspects of the drainage and mining system,the ventilation system,the monitoring system,the outburst prevention technology and established the third mutagenic risk factor index system of coal and gas outburst form the aspects of the cost input of gas control,gas control mechanism,administrative organization of gas control and gas control team.Then,it conducted an in-depth analysis on the effect of three classes of factors of coal and gas outburst,the effect of three types of mutagenic risk factors on the event chain of outburst disaster,and the weight of mutagenic risk factors was analyzed by expert investigation method and the WAS system.(3)On the basis of analysis of the event chain effect relationship of disaster,the event chain risk model on the mutagenic risk factors of the coal and gas outburst was established com'bining the state transfer theory and multi-dimensions random variables.Then,the event chain model programmed by MATLAB software calculated and worked out the analysis graphics of key probability based on the event chain of the three types of the mutagenic risk factors of the coal and gas outburst.Finally,the quantification processing of the initial state of the second and third types of mutagenic risk factors was carried out by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,which provided data support for the field application of the event chain model.(4)Based on state transfer theory,the event chain risk model of coal and gas outburst was applied to the field practice of one coal mine in Shanxi Province.Data analysis showed that the systemic value-at-risk was lower than the initial value-at-risk of the first type of mutagenic risk factors under the action of the event chain.And it also indicated that the basic situation of the second and the third type of mutagenic risk factors in the current mine seemed fine,but further control measures should be optimized by using objective programming model.Among 256 kinds of feasible schemes,the most effective control means of mutagenic risk factor of the third type hazard are gas control investm,ent and gas control team construction,and the most effective control means of mutagenic risk factor of the second type hazard are the prevention technology and drainage-mining system.Finally,the reducing disaster scheme of the event chain of coal and gas outburst for the coal mine was put forward by further exploring the mutagenic index.The above research achievement further enriched and extended the accident causing theory based on the three types of classification hazard,perfected the index system of the mutagenic risk factors of disaster accidents of coal and gas outburst,and further promoted the study of the event chain model of coal and gas outburst,which is of practical significance to the prevention and control of coal mine disasters.