Research On Environmental Risk Analysis And Cooperative Control In Beijing,Tianjin And Hebei Region

Beijing Tianjin Hebei Urban Agglomeration has superior geographical position,high development of economy and society and powerful innovation,which is An important engine that promotes China's economic and social development.Therefore,healthy and sustainable development of Beijing Tianjin Hebei Urban Agglomeration environmental system Should be highly valued.Due to the rapid development of urbanization in recent years,disordered urban construction,improper industrial cooperation development,over exploitation of water resources caused serious overrun of Beijing Tianjin Hebei ecological environment capacity and resource environment system,and the severe environmental system,affecting the residents' health,restricting the construction and development of city.Although in recent years,the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region has actively implemented the strategy of sustainable development,seriously implemented the pollution control and ecological protection policy,adopted a series of policies and engineering measures,given priority to comprehensive management of small watershed,mainly focused on the three North Shelterbelt,Bashang ecological agriculture,greening around the capital and afforestation in Taihang Mountain,returning farmland to forest and other projects,intensified the prevention and control of industrial pollution,banned,closed down a number of enterprises which caused serious pollution and had no prospect of governance,increased water pollution control and protection,made some progress in regional ecological environment construction and environmental protection,the rapid deterioration of the ecological environment has been slowed down.However,due to historical reasons and the industrial structure is unreasonable,there are still serious problems in ecological environment construction and environmental protection in this region.In addition,the rapid development of network communication technology,computer technology and so on puts forward higher requirements on the regional environmental risk management,therefore,the Beijing Tianjin Hebei regional environment risk management departments should make full use of modern technology to accelerate informatization construction to improve the risk management level.Through the study of this paper,it is helpful to find out the influencing factors of regional environmental risk of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,so as to provide basis for regional environmental risk management and control.In order to promote the environment improved in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the environmental risk is studied in thesis.According to the source and nature,the environmental risk is divided into 3 types,including “inherent risk source”,“effectiveness of prevention and control mechanism” and “risk receptor vulnerability”.On the basis of urban agglomeration theory,Risk system theory and regulations,the connotation of regional and concepts of environment risk are defined.Interaction principle of form elements is analyzed.Regional environmental risk factor system is constructed.Through literature review,field interviews,questionnaires,Fidel method,etc,the data of measured variables of regional environmental risk is acquired.Afterwards,by factor analysis,the influence factors of inherent risk source,effectiveness of prevention and control mechanism and risk receptor vulnerability are studied empirically.On the basis of research results,the environmental risk evaluation index system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is constructed.By combining methods of qualitative and quantitative and objective-subjective,the risk index values of each city are evaluated.According to the characteristics of regional risk,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is divided into 4 types of combined cities by clustering analysis.Finally,On the basis of the macro strategy of coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the environmental risk management is put forward by combining with the feature of urban environmental risk.By combining with characteristics of the urban environment system,environmental system elements are monitored and pre-warned through advanced scientific ideas and methods.Through sound risk evaluation and risk warning management system constructed,the regional environmental system is monitored and pre-warned to prevent and reduce regional environmental risk in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.First,to the beijing-tianjin-hebei urban agglomeration environment risk as the research object,the theory of urban agglomeration theory,regional environment risk management and risk system theory and the relevant laws and regulations,on the basis of defining the connotation of regional environment risk related concepts,analyzes the elements and interaction relationship of regional environment risk,analyzes the beijing-tianjin-hebei region 4 kinds of typical environmental risk,environmental risk of building the risk inherent in environmental risk source "area","environmental risk prevention and control mechanism of validity" and "the regional environmental risk receptor vulnerability" three dimensions of regional environmental risk assessment early warning index system.In addition,through the analysis of the present study situation,found that the regional environmental risk index of the building and there is still no unified standard and optimum seeking method,based on the experience of most scholars themselves,the determination of index system follow certain principles can cause strong subjectivity,unable to reflect the objective existence,prone to error.Analytic hierarchy process(ahp),Delphi method and fuzzy evaluation method also hard to avoid the disadvantages;Using principal component analysis,statistical methods,such as variation coefficient method,the neural network to establish on the basis of the large capacity samples,then most of the time,the large capacity sample is obtained.Based on the analysis of advantages and disadvantages of each method,the proposed index selection method based on the factor analysis method,using the method of beijing-tianjin-hebei regional environmental risk assessment index system of the initial optimal selection.Secondly,analyzing the concept,principle,advantages and disadvantages of the analytic hierarchy process,the entropy theory and the rough set theory,puts forward a comprehensive evaluation model which combines qualitative and quantitative,objective and subjective,that is,using the analytic hierarchy process in the subjective assignment;Objective assignment taking into account the index system contains both the qualitative and quantitative indicators,in order to ensure the applicability of the method,the attribute of the rough set is used to assign the qualitative index,at the same time,the entropy theory is used to quantify the weight of the quantitative index.Finally,based on the information entropy and rough set theory,comparing the relative importance between the weight sets determined by the main and objective methods,including group ranking weight vector group,rough set attribute importance vector and entropy weight vector,by normalized treatment,get the weight of each weight determination method,then get the comprehensive weight of the comprehensive evaluation index system of environmental risk in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,preparing for a comprehensive evaluation of each indicator of each city.Thirdly,according to the constructed index weight comprehensive assignment model,to calculate the subjective weight of the index system and objective weight respectively,then after the two groups of weights combined and normalized,we call get the final index weight and make synthetically evaluation of the indicators,according to the comprehensive evaluation results,we can see which factors influencing the city greatly,and using clustering analysis method to construct the cities have similar risk types into four kinds of "combined cities" with different risk characteristics,for the combination of four different types of risk between the strengths and weaknesses of the city,following the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration development of macroeconomic policy situation,in order to promote the comprehensive risk management of various cities,the chapter proposes the management path of the regional environmental risk of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in three aspects,including "reasonable transfer of industry","improvement of environmental risk prevention and control mechanism" and "optimal allocation of urban agglomeration",and giving detailed description of the management measures of each path,which will have some guiding significance for the development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Finally,using QFD model and constructing HoQ to evaluate the effectiveness of environmental policy of Beijing Tianjin Hebei cooperation.Fourth,according to the residual risk and collaborative environmental policy effectiveness evaluation results,with Beijing country's macro strategy of the Tianjin Hebei coordinated development for the general direction,put forward the environmental risk management opinion which adapts to the coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,And the construction of Beijing Tianjin Hebei Environmental Risk Management and control system,which concludes environmental risk management and control measures,framework of environmental risk prevention and management system,environmental risk management and control process.It is worth noting that In this paper,the risk early-warning system is incorporated into the risk management system,through the construction of environmental risk warning mechanism in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.The purpose of this paper is to monitor and warn the environmental system elements by using advanced scientific concepts and methods,so as to prevent and reduce the environmental risk of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region.The main innovation is reflected in the thesis:(1)A comprehensive assessment model of environmental risk in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region was constructed based on AHP and entropy weight method.The introduction of entropy weight method,it makes up for the deviation of the subjective weight assignment method to bring subjective evaluation results,it has good pertinence and applicability.(2)Construction of the QFD(Quality Function Deployment)model and ranking index HoQ(HoQ)model of collaborative environmental policy effectiveness evaluation for Beijing Tianjin and Hebei regional,solved the problem of the complex system effectiveness evaluation of Beijing Tianjin Hebei collaborative environmental policy system.(3)Environmental risk management system of Beijing Tianjin and Hebei regional was constructed,it includes the system framework design,process design and risk early warning mechanism design.Furthermore,the " risk precontrol" is introduced to the environmental risk management,it provides a scientific tool for the prevention and reduction of the environmental risk of Beijing Tianjin Hebei regional.